General Information and Analysis
US
|
Comment for 1/17/2014
|
Measure
|
Indicator
|
Ranking
|
|
Weekly RSI
|
WeeklyRSI
|
72.3
|
OverB Falling
|
|
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
|
200 MVA
|
9.31%
|
Bull
|
|
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
|
Slope55MA
|
0.49%
|
Neutral
|
|
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
|
ADX(14)
|
13.84
|
Chop
|
|
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
|
RSI(3)
|
61.88
|
Neutral
|
|
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev
|
ATR(90)
|
0.79%
|
Quiet
|
|
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
|
MACD
|
0.007
|
Chop
|
Long term, the bulls are still in
control. The market is undecided. Yesterday's
trading was crazy. The market opened way
up. Then crashed for 2-3 hours, then
recovered for the most part. The DOW
closed down slightly, but the rest of the market closed up a bit. For day traders, I believe this was an easy
day to make money, unlike Friday. The
market has been in a trading range for all of January (albeit some of the moves
were significant.)
Basically, some kind of
significant storm is coming. Joe Ross
has taught that this kind of choppy market lasts between 15 and 20 days before
a breakout. The trouble is, one cannot
tell which way it will break out with any accuracy. Also, one cannot predict that the first break
out will end up being a false breakout.
The S&P 500 is closing in 15 days of choppy markets. Also, internal market strength looks strong
on NYSE Add/Decline line and on VIX (At 12.87).
Trader Bias should remain long.
Technical information from price
only is inconclusive, as there has been no trend since December 26, 2013. Basically, short term swing traders should
step aside for now.
The table above
is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500. I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for
the USA stock market. For day traders:
You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend. However, looking at any daily chart over lots
of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Tuesday- Useful on Friday
1/10/2014
|
Yesterday 1-21-04
|
Day
Before Yesterday
|
|||
|
High
|
1844.00
|
High
|
1843.75
|
|
|
Low
|
1826.25
|
Low
|
1834.50
|
|
|
Close
|
1838.50
|
Close
|
1836.25
|
|
|
R2
|
1854.00
|
R2
|
1847.50
|
|
|
R1
|
1846.25
|
R1
|
1842.00
|
|
|
Pivot
|
1836.25
|
Pivot
|
1838.25
|
|
|
S1
|
1828.50
|
S1
|
1832.75
|
|
|
S2
|
1818.50
|
S2
|
1829.00
|
|
Stocks –
Zeb’s View:
The investors and traders are
confused (or just waiting for FOMC).
"And there's rumors going round, someone's underground" oh
wait that is the Eagles.
It is being reported in NY that
rumors were going round in the gold market that FOMC might announce accelerated
end to its bond buying program at next week's meeting. Under rumors, traders (and some investors)
have shrugged off the bad labor report, and are focusing on the global economic
positive signs.
The Stock market sort of shrugged
it all off, but Gold, silver, and platinum took a big hit. Rumors make the stock market go round. (See
the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy - So Long and thanks for the Fish)
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