Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Wednesday, January 22, 2014 Zeb’s Vue


General Information and Analysis


US


Comment for 1/17/2014
Measure
Indicator
Ranking
Weekly RSI
WeeklyRSI
72.3
OverB Falling
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
200 MVA
9.31%
Bull
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
Slope55MA
0.49%
Neutral
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
ADX(14)
13.84
Chop
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
RSI(3)
61.88
Neutral
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev
ATR(90)
0.79%
Quiet
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
MACD
0.007
Chop

 
Comment:

Long term, the bulls are still in control.  The market is undecided. Yesterday's trading was crazy.  The market opened way up.  Then crashed for 2-3 hours, then recovered for the most part.  The DOW closed down slightly, but the rest of the market closed up a bit.  For day traders, I believe this was an easy day to make money, unlike  Friday.   The market has been in a trading range for all of January (albeit some of the moves were significant.)    

Basically, some kind of significant storm is coming.  Joe Ross has taught that this kind of choppy market lasts between 15 and 20 days before a breakout.  The trouble is, one cannot tell which way it will break out with any accuracy.  Also, one cannot predict that the first break out will end up being a false breakout.  The S&P 500 is closing in 15 days of choppy markets.  Also, internal market strength looks strong on NYSE Add/Decline line and on VIX (At 12.87).  Trader Bias should remain long.

Technical information from price only is inconclusive, as there has been no trend since December 26, 2013.  Basically, short term swing traders should step aside for now. 

 

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random. 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Tuesday- Useful on Friday 1/10/2014

Yesterday 1-21-04
Day Before Yesterday
High
1844.00
High
1843.75
Low
1826.25
Low
1834.50
Close
1838.50
Close
1836.25
R2
1854.00
R2
1847.50
R1
1846.25
R1
1842.00
Pivot
1836.25
Pivot
1838.25
S1
1828.50
S1
1832.75
S2
1818.50
S2
1829.00

 

Stocks –


Zeb’s View:

The investors and traders are confused (or just waiting for FOMC).  "And there's rumors going round, someone's underground" oh wait that is the Eagles. 

It is being reported in NY that rumors were going round in the gold market that FOMC might announce accelerated end to its bond buying program at next week's meeting.  Under rumors, traders (and some investors) have shrugged off the bad labor report, and are focusing on the global economic positive signs. 

The Stock market sort of shrugged it all off, but Gold, silver, and platinum took a big hit.  Rumors make the stock market go round. (See the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy - So Long and thanks for the Fish)

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