General Information and Analysis
US
Comment:
|
Comment for 1/31/2014
|
Measure
|
Indicator
|
Ranking
|
|
Weekly RSI
|
WeeklyRSI
|
59.6
|
Neutral
|
|
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
|
200 MVA
|
5.83%
|
Bullish
|
|
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
|
Slope55MA
|
0.40%
|
Bearish
|
|
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
|
ADX(14)
|
24.43
|
Bearish
|
|
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
|
RSI(3)
|
40.50
|
Neutral
|
|
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev
|
ATR(90)
|
1.06%
|
Watch Out
|
|
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
|
MACD
|
0.680
|
Bearish
|
The table above
is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500. I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for
the USA stock market. For day traders:
You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend. However, looking at any daily chart over lots
of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random. Note on VIX: VIX closed at 13.77. That is not a "bearish"
indication. VIX is moving up albeit not
strongly, but 20 is considered to be a bearish sign, and it is a long way from
that.
The intermediate market technical
signals are neutral to bearish. The
long-term direction (200 Day MVA) is still bullish.
In the short to intermediate
term, the stock market has turned
bearish.
The Bullish Percent Index has
broken out to the downside for DOW. The
bullish pct index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on
Point and figure buy signals within the DOW.
As stated many times, daily prices are fairly random, and after the
large range down yesterday the price still held at 1767 to 1770 level on the
S&P 500 futures.
The S&P500 Bullish PCT Index
is very close to issuing a sell signal.
At 5:42 (PST), the market is way down over night. Almost everything has turned bearish in the
short to intermediate term.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Thursday- Useful on Friday
1/31/2014
|
Yesterday 1-30-04
|
1/29/2014
|
|||
|
High
|
1793.75
|
High
|
1801.25
|
|
|
Low
|
1767.75
|
Low
|
1764.00
|
|
|
Close
|
1781.25
|
Close
|
1771.25
|
|
|
R2
|
1807.00
|
R2
|
1816.25
|
|
|
R1
|
1794.25
|
R1
|
1794.00
|
|
|
Pivot
|
1781.00
|
Pivot
|
1779.00
|
|
|
S1
|
1768.25
|
S1
|
1756.75
|
|
|
S2
|
1755.00
|
S2
|
1741.75
|
|
Stocks –
Zeb's VUE:
There are many indications the
Stock market in the USA and Europe has entered a bearish configuration. What we all want to know is what the future
holds. There is no known way to predict
the future accurately. Determining
whether an investment will make money is dependent on factors that are outside
the investors control.
There are only two things (once an
investment is made) that the investor has control over.
·
Risk management (how much are you willing to
lose from this point in time)
·
Exit - An
exit will be made with a profit, or it will be made with a loss.
There are two emotions that the
investor must control: Greed and/or Fear.
They are sneaky as well. Greed
shows up in not taking profits, or adding leverage, or 50+ other ways. Fear shows up in not cutting losses, inaction
(not exiting), fear of missing out, and 50+ other ways to lose your money.
Support and Resistance
I mentioned a few days ago that
1760 to 1770 would be support on SPX (S&P 500 Index). That will be tested today as the overnight
price on ES mini is already testing 1760
- 1765 range with no indication of a bounce.
Resistance on SPY was very near
1800 yesterday, as the market rallied to that point, and then dropped. The 1800 number will be a very important
barrier, but if it is penetrated, it will be a sign the greater market is ready
to continue its long-term uptrend.
Overall? It appears investors and traders world wide
have not yet established a trend. On 12/18/2013,
SPX bounced off the 50 Day MVA with a low of 1767.99. In other words, that low is still a major
support area that has been tested in 2014 in the range of 1760-1770. In fact SPX has not penetrated 1770 yet,
while the ES emini has 1761.25 this morning.
Markets are set to wipe out all
the gains from yesterday. The problem is
in Europe as their stock market tanked on news that the CPI printed at .70
dropping from .8% It has remained under
1% for the 4th straight month, and has missed all expectations. We will probably see Mario Draghi (European
Central Bank head) come up with an emergency tool to boost inflation.
What do you think? Is Japan being successful increasing
inflation?
Gold?
Gold is bouncing around in 2014 as
well. As everyone is aware, Gold looks
like it has established a bottom for now.
Gold is still in a long-term bear market, but the emerging market
problems have supported Gold (and hurt the stock markets).
Headlines:
·
European equities are being crunched right from
the opening in Germany, London and Paris.
·
European CPI is softer than expected. Look for more easing...
·
Lots of economic data to be released today.
·
Japan's inflation is accelerating, while
industrial output gained. Demand for workers in Japan strengthened as
well.
·
Sovereign yields in Europe and the emerging
markets decline... EU peripheral spreads
widen.
·
China begins the Lunar New Year Holiday, and
Shanghai Comp to remain closed until February 7th.
·
11:00AM EST, Fed to purchase $3.75-4.75 billion
in bonds/notes in 2018 sector.
