General Information and Analysis
US
|
Comment for 1/27/2014
|
Measure
|
Indicator
|
Ranking
|
|
Weekly RSI
|
WeeklyRSI
|
59
|
Neutral
|
|
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
|
200 MVA
|
5.49%
|
Neutral
|
|
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
|
Slope55MA
|
0.33%
|
Neutral
|
|
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
|
ADX(14)
|
16.00
|
Bearish
|
|
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
|
RSI(3)
|
21.79
|
Oversold
|
|
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev
|
ATR(90)
|
0.93%
|
Watch Out
|
|
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
|
MACD
|
0.570
|
Weak DT
|
Comment:
The market is definitely giving
signs of a short to intermediate down turn in direction. The 200 Day MVA is still a "BUY",
but the intermediate signals are either neutral or bearish. Very short term, RSI(3) is showing
Overbought, and in a bull market, this would indicate that today and maybe
(stress maybe) tomorrow would be a reaction against last Fridays blood bath.
Volume really picked up on Friday,
and that is another signal that the market is in for a significant correct over
the short and intermediate term.
On Friday I said "Human
Behavior, however, suggests that when almost everyone expects the market to go
up, it goes down. Then everyone catches
the cold, and starts liquidating. That
liquidation is just what the commercials are looking for, as they will invest
on "revert to the mean" in an upward bull market. "
The table above
is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500. I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for
the USA stock market. For day traders:
You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend. However, looking at any daily chart over lots
of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random. Note on VIX: VIX closed at 13.77. That is not a "bearish"
indication. VIX is moving up albeit not
strongly, but 20 is considered to be a bearish sign, and it is a long way from
that.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Tuesday- Useful on Friday
1/10/2014
|
Yesterday 1-24-04
|
Day
Before Yesterday
|
|||
|
High
|
1828.00
|
High
|
1844.00
|
|
|
Low
|
1780.00
|
Low
|
1813.75
|
|
|
Close
|
1782.00
|
Close
|
1823.75
|
|
|
R2
|
1844.75
|
R2
|
1857.50
|
|
|
R1
|
1813.50
|
R1
|
1840.75
|
|
|
Pivot
|
1796.75
|
Pivot
|
1827.25
|
|
|
S1
|
1765.50
|
S1
|
1810.50
|
|
|
S2
|
1748.75
|
S2
|
1797.00
|
|
Stocks –
Zeb’s View:
Friday was an ugly day for the
Bulls. If you are a retail trader and
you invested in the stock market earlier this year on the advice of analysts,
you are hurting.
- The Dow closed -318.25 (-1.96%)
- The S&P 500 closed -38.17 (-2.09%)
- The DAX closed -239.05 (-2.48%)
- The Nikkei closed -406.66 (-2.64%)
What was the cause of the Friday's
weakness? Rumors my friends, rumors,
and it was the same Thursday.
·
FOMC rumors they will taper more?
·
Japanese Finance manager saying Japan is through
tapering?
·
The carry trade between USD/JPY was killed as
USD/JPY was down 1.3% (on the comments above)?
·
Chinese Data was not so good?
·
Bank of England will no longer give "rate
guidance"?
·
Emerging market currency drop...
One piece of news that was
shocking was China's suspension of domestic Renminbi transfers. Forbes suggests that the suspension may be
due to an impending bankruptcy in the "shadow banking" in China. http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/06/30/citibank-caught-in-china-cash-crunch-not-making-money-transfers/ There is little real transparency in China in
anything. What you will read is
basically an analysis and opinion of Western Reporters. Only time will tell if China has a problem
that would require rethinking of the Global Economy.
In general, traders and investors
world-wide are going to be waiting on the FOMC conclusions on Wednesday. Then Thursday will be a big day with the
Labor Report and the first reporting on USA fourth quarter GDP. Retail sales for the holiday are expected to
rise (due to holiday spending). On
Friday the PCE numbers will be released (before adjustments over the next two
weeks).
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