Friday, March 29, 2013

Good Friday Musings - 3/29/2013

Good Morning America...

Oh, I lost my Chautauqua on Good Friday where I wondered how in the world in atheists nations we all come to party on Good Friday and Easter.  We shut down everything (except the Federal Government in the USA), and we can't really do business; so we party.  


Can It Happen in the USA (or Canada)?  
For several days I've written about Cypress in my blog, facts (as I knew them), and asking if it could happen in the USA. Now lots of analysts are asking the same thing. Let me introduce you to Ellen Brown.  http://seekingalpha.com/article/1306931-it-can-happen-here-the-confiscation-scheme-planned-for-u-s-and-u-k-depositors?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

"Confiscating the customer deposits in Cyprus banks, it seems, was not a one-off, desperate idea of a few eurozone "troika" officials scrambling to salvage their balance sheets. A joint paper by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England dated Dec. 10, 2012, shows that these plans have been long in the making; that they originated with the G20 Financial Stability Board in Basel, Switzerland (discussed earlier here); and that the result will be to deliver clear title to the banks of depositor funds."  
The following is from:: http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/gsifi.pdf

"The financial crisis that began in 2007 has driven home the importance of an orderly resolution process for globally active, systemically important, financial institutions (G-SIFIs). Given that challenge, the authorities in the United States (U.S.) and the United Kingdom (U.K.) have been working together to develop resolution strategies that could be applied to their largest financial institutions. These strategies have been designed to enable large and complex cross-border firms to be resolved without threatening financial stability and without putting public funds at risk. This work has taken place in connection with the implementation of the G20 Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions." 

"The goal is to produce resolution strategies that could be implemented for the failure of one or more of the largest financial institutions with extensive activities in our respective jurisdictions. These resolution strategies should maintain systemically important operations and contain threats to financial stability. They should also assign losses to shareholders and unsecured creditors in the group, thereby avoiding the need for a bailout by taxpayers. These strategies should be sufficiently robust to manage the challenges of cross-border implementation and to the operational challenges of execution."

There is no indication that any amounts insured by the FDIC would be protected in the case of a Bank going bankrupt.  This cannot even be remotely considered an oversight as the FDIC is co-authoring this paper.  The German's, specifically in the original Cypress deal, insisted on "private sector participation" which translated by someone (me) far away suggests someone other than the Central Banks need to take losses.  As I stated yesterday, this approach started with the "Greece Haircut".    

Since I cannot substantiate any claims of illegal activity on behalf of the Banks in the USA, I can only ask you: is there any indication in the USA banking system that would put the depositors in even a worse position than what is happening in Cypress?  May I suggest you do some research on how certain large banks (start with BofA) passed their stress test, when just a few months before, almost none of them could. Why would that be of interest?  Start with remembering Lehman brothers which started the fiscal panic in 2007-08. 
When Lehman failed unsecured creditors -- notice that bank depositors are unsecured creditors -- received 8 cents on the dollars invested with Lehman.  And now, this... The depositors in these large banks (BofA, CitiBank, etc) are not even senior creditors (read that FDIC document).  

The reason that Lehman investors were senior creditors was that derivatives counter-parties require collateral for any exposures.  The 2005 bankruptcy reforms made derivatives counter-parties senior to unsecured lenders (remember that?, you don't?  Guess what these things come back to haunt).  

In late 2011, Bank of America moved a huge percentage of its derivatives from Merrill Lynch operations to its depository.  Why?  Bloomberg:  "Bank of America Corp. (BAC), hit by a credit downgrade last month, has moved derivatives from its Merrill Lynch unit to a subsidiary flush with insured deposits, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation…"  

In June 2012, Bloomberg was reporting that BofA's holding company was holding almost $75 trillion (TRILLION?) of derivatives according to the OCC.  Approximately $53 Trillion were within Bank of American parent.  (This is the notional value of the trades.)

Is BofA the only one?  Bloomberg: "That (BofA) compares with JPMorgan's deposit-taking entity., JPMorgan Chase Bank which contained 99 % of the NY firm's $79 Trillion of notional derivatives."  

Hello Houston, NY, Guantanamo  we got a problem.  There would appear to be something very wrong (legally) with the Federal Reserve, the FDIC and any other oversight of Bank's doings.  The 2005 bankruptcy law revisions move derivatives counter-parties to first in line; i.e., they grab the assets firsts (which just happens it could be your deposits if you bank with one of these folks).  

Does this mean that this could be tantamount to shifting transfer of derivative risk from Merrill Lynch to the taxpayer via the FDIC?  If you understood that question at all, you would  conclude first Derivatives of a Bank would be covered, then the FDIC (funded via of taxpayer money) would have to make good on all deposits up to $250,000.  

Revisiting Lehman again, then.  First, in any scenario from one of these Too Large To Fail Banks, and it is impossible to imagine an orderly shutdown as the derivative counter-parties grab for the assets.  That leads to abrupt insolvency.  

Lehman over one weekend became insolvent after JP Morgan grabbed the collateral.  
Let go back further to the savings and loan crises.  FDIC did not have enough in deposit insurance receipts to pay Resolution Trust Corporation wind-down vehicle.  The FDIC had to receive emergency funding from Congress.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis  

OK, I can't help think of Valdimer Putin (Russia)  "The Central Bank was not just a bank but a regulator of the financial system and the main institution of state macroeconomic policy, he said."  Oh, my dear enemy, you are able to be honest about it at least.  Folks, can you observe central planning and control by Finance?

Let me end this part of the dialogue and encourage you to read Ellen Brown's article. What I've said above is covered in detail in her article.  Please keep this in mind also.  Any decent Academic study of the FDIC (where it is not being paid for the Banks or the Government) concludes the FDIC is woefully underfunded in case even one of these TBTF banks fail.  

Yes, folks, it appears the Banks in the USA are fully positioned to do much more than Cypress did, and it will fall onto the taxpayer to cover if a Bank becomes illiquid from super derivatives (as it did in Spain, Greece, Cypress and soon to be other countries in Europe.)

I would also like to state again and again.  What is happening is not attributable to Republicans or Democrats stand alone.  That means centralize TBTF banks happened under every President since the monster from Jekyll Island was created.  Who are the foxes that putting in the laws for limiting access to the Hen House?  (Hello! Paulson - hello Goldman Sachs, Geithner - only banking job was federal Reserve, Jack Lew - hello Citigroup)

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Thursday Musing - 3/28/2013

Good Morning America...  Welcome to Thursday.   It is going to be a great day.  Now if I can just make some money today; well that would be perfect.

Was yesterday a weird day in the stock market to you?  The news was fairly poor, but after the overnight trading in Europe which was down, the stock market went up and up and up, and ended flat.  Which all goes to prove when we are in an up-trend, news (unless extremely unexpected) does not drive the market in the way expected.

Today the GDP report came in, and it is below expectation.  This is being explained away as not really bad, and that the data is stale.  The "bad" part is being explained as temporary factors including weather.  Actually the data was not bad enough to forecast a correction in a very strong up-trend.

What I suspect is the case here, is the global economy is struggling, and the US economy is facing headwinds.  The liquidity push by the ECB and Federal Reserve are keeping the global economy from sinking, but they are going to have to "bail" faster. 

Today weekly jobless claims will be released.  It was released at 5:30 AM PDT, and it was bad.  However, it is also being explained away as positive.  Bloomberg reports: "But the 4-week average of 343,000 is still more than 10,000 below February's trend which is a positive signal for the labor market.  Unlike initial claims, continuing claims came down in the latest week, 27,000 lower to a new recovery low of 3.050 million with the 4-week average 6,000 lower to 3.073 million which is also a recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers is holding at a recovery low of 2.4 percent."

So, there you have it for the morning... Bad news, but not so bad the market will correct from that news.  If the market corrects, it will be news from Europe I expect.

========= Currencies and comments later ==========

Bacteria in the Intestines May Help Tip the Bathroom Scale

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/28/health/studies-focus-on-gut-bacteria-in-weight-loss.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20130328&_r=0  Interesting article.

Minor Change to Routine


Doing something a little different today.  What is it?  I'm watching how the news affects the market, and reporting real time -- 'cause it is interesing.

OK, we have several economic reports out this morning, and they are all negative (but being explained away as not too bad).  The market is going higher albiet very slowly.  (Review yesterday, and the news was negative - but explained away -- and the market made no major effort to go down from the opening.)

Let me take an example of something that is mind-boggling. 
The February Chicago PMI just hit the lowest point since September 2009.  It tumbled from 56.8 to 52.4 in a stunning reversal (since we've all be shown manufacturing is improving in the US).  This is far below expectations.  New Orders tanked from 60.2 (an average by the way) to 53.0.  Inventories contracted as well, and the USA would be talking about recession normally. 

From the report, there is no housing recovery in the Chicago Fed district either.  The recovery in housing seems to be coming from the South -- which is unusual (except in Florida - which is leading at the moment). 

Chicago is an important report equaling or exceeding Philadelphia's report.  The two reports in diverging. 

As of 8:46 AM PDT, the market has digested this awful news, and is moving substantially higher with no indication (at least temporarily) that any of the negative news will have a corrective affect on the DOW or the S&P. 

8:21  The markets continue to climb.  Folks, any of us who think about business and investing must throw out everything we've learned about free markets over our life times.   Where countries who do not have QE eternity, the free market is acting as normal (Sweden, Norway, Switzerland).  Where the Central Bankers have control of QE, the market is not free to find its levels, and fundamentals of any kind are not what is driving pricing. 



Since the beginning of the year, the materials sector is indicating that the only important factor for Materials is China.  Technology is also really bad, and the technology sector over the past 30 years has been the leader of indicating how the economy will go. 

Today, the Russel 2000 (mid size) is lagging badly. This is not usual. The S&P 500 participation (buying and selling) has weakened since January.  As the S&P moves up, fewer stocks comprising the index are moving up. 

Now just a brief side note into the stock market's inconsistent signals so far.  Keep in mind the most important thing is price, but as you will see from the sectors listed above, the DOW price and the sectors are not in alignment.  (If you assume according to DOW Theory the DOW Jones average reflects manufacturing (which arguably, it no longer does reflect manufacturing)  then one would conclude Manufacturing is healthy, and as all the Economic data from the USA government (including the Federal Reserve) manufacturing is not healthy -- read today's Chicago PMI report for example.

Dow Jones Bullish Percent Index:  This is a DOW jones market breadth indicator that shows the number of stocks on buy signals.  Abe Cohen created the index using the NYSE.  He used point-and-figure charting. That is good because there is no ambiguity with P&F -- you know when to hold and you know when to fold.  If the chart is in an "X" column, it is buy signal, and if in a "O" column it is a sell signal.  Since this is a % chart, it will not go above 100 or below 0. 


The DOW's stock (are in the 90% range of buy.  Notice, this is nearly always at the overbought range, but remember, the market can remain overbought for nearly ever. 



As you might have guessed, NASDAQ is not nearly as bullish as DOW.  This is only a minor indication that not all is as normal as the NASDAQ often (almost always in since the '90s) leads the bull market. 

The following chart, however, provides more dissidence. 

The overall S&P 500 stocks re not reaching new highs while the DOW continues to set new highs.  In addition, this also indicates that only a small percentage of the S&P 500 is setting new highs; not the majority. Might Reader, we've seen this before in recent history, and it never ends up GOOD.  Let us hope when there is a correction it will be mild.

And what is the point?  The traders and investors are still unsure, and the European situation is keeping the investors guessing about the short term direction of the market. 

The market is unsure, and except for very long term investment, an investor should be very cautious about buying anything,.  Having said that, I have to admit that the market (overall) rarely gives clear-cut signals, and buying-low and selling-high is the best strategy.  Of course, I have not been trained (or observed) anyone who could do that consistently - except Mr. Buffet of course.

For long positions that you are going to hold, it is a good idea to take out insurance (as I've been stating for days).  (Of course, my money manager disagrees with me, and I pay him/her lots of money to keep building my wealth.  But I'm learning quickly -- with your feedback - when and how to buy insurance while creating income.) 

Wow...  That was entertaining (for me), and I hope you will find it helpful in some way. 

Currencies next. 

Well, I wrote a lot about currencies, and the blogger editor quit working.  I lost it, and I don't feel like re-creating all the research.

Basically, today is a Risk-On day -- moving away from US $$$ to other currencies.

SPAIN:

Bloomberg has an interesting article on SPAIN...  http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-03-27/spain-revises-up-2012-deficit-as-eurostat-requests-data-changes

“The Spanish government said its 2012 budget deficit will be bigger than first estimated after the European Union requested changes in how tax claims are computed. The budget shortfall excluding aid to the banking sector was 6.98 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than the 6.74 percent predicted on Feb. 28, Deputy Budget Minister Marta Fernandez Curras told reporters in Madrid today. That compares with 8.96 percent in 2011.” And “Spain is seeking an extension from other euro-region governments to reorder its public finances as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says output may shrink more in 2013 than the 0.5 percent he initially predicted. That’s a third of the contraction forecast by the International Monetary Fund. Spain is due to submit budget plans through 2014 to the European"

We can fully expect lots more trouble in Europe, but the real S(FIGS)pain will hit the fan when France admits it is in trouble, and once again socialism will prove that propping up failed business and countries with debt will not work.

IT and Computer Security

Since this is my blog, and since I'm interested in sharing whatever little I know, I will share with you my work in and reading in IT Security.  

The big news for now is the Denial of Service Attack in Europe on Spamhaus.  For those who don't know that what DDoS is, it is an attempt to flood servers with so much data they cannot do anything,.  

The attack on Spamhaus was different if for no other reason that it sent 300 Gigabits per second attack against DNS (Domain Name System) of Spamhaus and its service providers.  That volume has never been seen before, but in the future (now that it has been accomplished) we will see larger attacks.
  • DNS is used to resolve the names you type in your address space in your browser.  Your DNS server (at your ISP (or internally if you service yourself) automatically finds the address for that name. What is a DNS server?  It is any computer registered to join a Domain Name System, and it runs special purpose networking software that features a public IP address and contains a database of network names and addresses of other Internet hosts.  
This attack is supposedly in retaliation for Spamhaus' blacklisting CyberBunker; although CyberBunker has not claimed responsibility.  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/technology/internet/online-dispute-becomes-internet-snarling-attack.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1364392112-VH+zSYqVHIgt8sBJ/Y1V3g&

This is a big threat to the Internet if these kind of attacks cannot be thwarted.  As far as I can determine from Alkami's report is that the attackers exploited improperly configured or default-state DNS services (DNS resolvers).  Then this was not a standard botnet attack.  DNS servers run on large high-speed Internet connections, and they are connected via of communication protocols.  Security experts estimate there are likely 21 million of these servers on the net. (You and I can guarantee your organization or your ISP has one of them.)  

CloudFlare was hired by Spamhaus to deflect the attack. CloudFlare has stated all the attack traffic was generated from DNS amplification.  On March 18, 2013 the first of these attacks knocked Spamhaus offline. No one really knows how it got started, but some experts suggest that it started with a few servers running on networks that allow source IP address spoofing.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNS_spoofing

CloudFlare rerouted that data, but something very sophisticated then happened.  The attackers turned their sights on CloudFlare and targeted bandwidth providers used by CloudFlare and ultimately several regional Internet Exchanges connected to CloudFlare.  

This is not the "Armageddon" of the Internet, but it is a bad thing because it shows how vulnerable the Internet is to large amounts of data being thrown at it at the base infrastructure (DNS in this case).  

Folks, there are people out there that believe it is their right to retaliate (instead of cleaning up).  Anyone who gets in their way must be punished.  That of course, means the whole population of the Internet is threatened when under these type of attacks. 

What is also unique about this attack is security experts know who started and who is repsonsible.  Not only that the individual(s) bragged about it louder than normal.  In the past, law enforcement has been unable to arrest or prosecute such individuals.  

Will this affect you?  It already has if you lived in Europe.  It is coming to North America soon.  Think how much business is now run on the Internet.  I've already talked about small business that use their point-of-sale systems which require the Internet.  Think about all those businesses coming to a halt while their service providers try to correct the problem.  

The perpetrators need to be caught, arrested, prosecuted and have their trial on the Internet every day (like the OJ Simpson fiasco). 

What are your thoughts?
 

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Wednesday Followup - 03/27/2013

Good Morning America (again)...

 

The Cyprus situation should bring a shudder to every citizen of every democracy in the world.  When a government can arbitrarily reach into your "deposits" and take (not tax) 7-15% tomorrow without a vote or democratic representation, what is the difference between that and fascism? 

If you read my early morning post, you will realize that Cyprus in the scheme of monetary threat is not a threat.  What is a threat to the whole free world is the Eurozone's ability to close the banks indefinitely in a sovereign country and take up to 15% of savings for everyone having more than 99,999.00 Euros in deposits. 
Were not the people of the EU promised that the Euro was the same throughout the Eurozone, treated the same throughout the Eurozone, and allowing transfers between banks throughout the Eurozone?  So much for that. 
Now, please play out this scenario in your head.  You are a retiree, and over the years you have saved for your retirement.  Your bank (in Cyprus) has many different "deposit" accounts, which includes, savings, bonds, notes, stocks and checking.  You are very fortunate if you've been making more than 2% over the last 8 years during the European crises.  Now, Cyprus is still discussing what "deposits" mean, but for the moment, suppose it is everything you have deposited with that bank, and your cash holding (Checking and Savings) is Euro 10,000, but your deposit is 1,000,000 Euro.  If they took 15%, then you would have to liquidate something.  That is only one challenge of course.  Basically, the country would take more than you can earn on those savings over the next 10 or so years (assuming the country does not do that again) even if you have the cash to cover now.

All the politicians in Europe are trying their best to spin this as it will only cost the Russian Depositors.  In fact that is a spurious argument as personal property is personal property, and taking enough property from foreigners is tantamount to war between countries.

For those of you that are USA citizens, this is similar to the same war between the Democratic Socialists (led by Maxine Waters and Nancy Pelosi) and those that believe in freedom to own personal property (Ron Paul) without threat of confiscation by the government.  It is guaranteed in our Bill of Rights and the Constitution, but those freedoms are under attack ever since the days of Franklin D Roosevelt.   
So you (and I) of the USA do not think our government would ever, never, ever do what Cyprus has set the precedence for?   I will remind you that President Obama's current approval rating is 52%, and if push-came-to-shove, we have no idea what the man would do, but we do have some history what Liberal Democrats would do. 

At this point are any educated people in the USA surprised that sovereign nations can default, and that banks can go bankrupt, and that banks can be too large for some countries (Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal) to bail them out?  And would it surprise you to learn that there are countries that are rated AAA by Moody's that could not cover their commitment in sovereign debt?  Read on...

Given, the ECB (European Central Bank) and the Eurozone politicos should have worked out a response to Cyprus years ago. Clearly the Russians (and some large US companies) thought the EU had a plan, which they clearly did not. 

Now, USA citizen: ask yourself again.  Do you have blind faith in the US government to have a plan to bail out the "too-big" to fail US banks and what if the Federal Reserve itself finds its asset in mortgages due to collapse where there is trillions of dollars in mortgages they are holding? 

The USA government under the central planning regime of the Federal Reserve wants you to believe that they would just print more money to cover any bank including GS, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citibank, and so-on.  "I believe, I believe, I believe" Donkey in Shrek I

Some Facts:


(I kind of dislike facts, because I'm only privileged to what the media and the politicos release.  But I will provide what I can, and you should verify.)

·         Cyprus Bank deposits (undefined what deposits mean) - Roughly 68Billion Euro.
·         That is FOUR times the size of the total national GDP.
·         The total size of Cypress banks, however, was roughly eight times GDP (this is where you can imagine other kinds of deposits sit rather than just checking)
·         The "Troika" recommended Cyprus needed 17B Euro, but they could only lend 10B (oh poor Troika after just lending Spain hundreds of billions)
·         Troika demanded (oops recommended) that the depositors in the banks fund the other 7B. 
·         The Cyprus parliament totally rejected the Eurozone proposal.
·         Cyprus banks will remain closed (under capital control) until at least Thursday.  Then there will likely be controls on what can be removed.  (Mr. Anastasiades said these controls will be relaxed gradually, and I'm sure he believes this, but gradually can be forever as we learned from the Federal Reserve who was only going to have QE temporarily - which is now QEternity.)  Mr. Neofytou (opposition to Mr. Anastasiades) said - “Will [have to] wait for many years before they see what percentage they will get back from their savings – 30 percent, 40 percent, 50 percent, 60 percent, it will be seen….”
Supposition (by the Financial Times):  On the surface it looks like large depositors will lose about 15%. And if the Financial Times is right (and the betting line is heavily on their side), a significant majority of that money is Russian. Much of the remainder is tax-haven money. 
It turns out that Cyprus voters vote, by the way.  The last election they reported an 81% turnout, and after the banks tallied citizen accounts vs foreigners, most of the deposits held by that 81% were much less than 100,000 Euros.  Easy to see why the politicos decided not to tax accounts less than 100,000 Euros.  Oh, and by the way (more irrational thinking) if you were a Greek Bank with a Cyprus bank, your deposits are exempt from the levy. 

Are There Any Unforeseen Potential Negative Consequences?

There likely hundreds of them, but let's look at some potentials that are not talked about (except in the London Times and the Financial Daily and then only on the back pages). 
Basell III requires Eur
1.       Luxembourg has banking assets of 13 times the country's GDP.  OK, gentle reader, you are going to point out that Luxembourg banking is the epitome of strength and reliability.  They are mostly invested in (you guessed it) credit institutions and other countries' central banks.  If those assets had to be repriced (based on Cyprus, Greece, Spain, and other pheripheral nations), they cannot even begin to think about backing their banks. 
2.       The Financial Times: "The chairman of the group of eurozone finance ministers warned that the bailout marked a watershed in how the eurozone dealt with failing banks, with European leaders now committed to “pushing back the risks” of paying for bank bailouts from taxpayers to private investors."  Ok, that started with the "haircut" that investors took on Greek Bonds.  Now the rules change again to depositors. 
3.       Corporations that run their cash-flow through a bank in the EU is going to have to carefully consider moving their banking to London or Switzerland (or Sweden or Norway).  Look at this way. If you own a large business doing hundreds of millions (even billions) of Euro in cash flow monthly, are you not going to be very concerned about the ability one fine evening of the Eurozone just attaching 15% of your cash at that moment?  Yes you are, if you've answered honestly. 
a.       I believe this will force all financial institutions (and large international corporations) as well as investors in bonds/notes/curriences to consider the risks they are taking on.
b.      This ability of the Gestapo to reach in and take your money now has a precedence, and prudent finance people will have to account for this risk.
4.       One begins to consider: a) Uninsured depositors will be hit now and in the future as the Eurozone moves from one crises to the next b) Euro countries will have to restructure the large banking sectors and reduce their size as they are threat to the financial stability of the Eurozone. c) Eurozone will seek ways to shift risks away from the public sector.
5.       Here is the rest of the story: Malta is hurting.  Slovenia is in trouble. Luxembourg cannot bail out its banks if the crises continue to unfold. 
6.       And here is something from Mr. Dijsselbloem - Dutch Finance Minister (who is a neophyte in politics obviously) "Essentially, why will anyone keep more than E100k in any EZ bank – indeed, why deposit any amount in certain EZ banks, as the value of the EZ  bank-deposit guarantee is worthless in a number of cases, as a number of the peripheral EZ countries can’t afford to pay up. I repeat, the EZ bank deposit “guarantee” is not a joint and several responsibility across the EZ; it is the responsibility of individual EZ countries."
7.       French banks are in awful shape: One example, BNP-Paribas: $2.5 trillion of asset vs. $80 billion of tangible common equity (TCE) or 31X leverage; it has only $730 billion of deposits or just 29% of its asset footings compared to about 50% at big U.S. banks like JPM; is teetering on $500 billion of mostly unsecured long-term debt that will have to be rolled at higher and higher rates; and all the rest of its funding is from the wholesale money market , which is fast drying up, and from repo where it is obviously running out of collateral.

EuroZone and the Currency

Euro continues to drop.  (but maybe not as bad as could be expected).
Euro Zone where is your deposit insurance?  The Cyprus fiasco underscores you folks do not have a deposit-insurance scheme.  You promised the world you would create one, but Germany has opposed it vehemently. 
Then gentle reader: if something as straightforward and necessary as deposit insurance cannot be achieved, than how can there really be any hope that the Eurozone can survive?  A fiscal union is necessary if the Eurozone is to survive. 
When the French banks declared the Emperor had no clothes when they were pricing sub-prime assets that  started this mess, the French don't even have skin might as well clothes.  They hold sovereign debt backed by no capital due to the zero-risk raging of BASIL III (good grief).
And what about German banks?  " Did you know that Deutsche Bank is levered 60:1 on a TCE/assets basis, and that its Basel “risk-weighted” assets are only $450 billion, but actual balance sheet assets are $3 trillion? In other words, due to the Basel standards, which count sovereign and other AAA assets as risk free, DB has $2.5 trillion of assets with zero capital backing!" Graham Summers Phoenix Capital UK.

Destruction of Middle Class Wealth in the Western World

My friends, if you believe this is all Europe, think again.  (I will leave Canada and Mexico out for the moment, but they are in this as well because the USA is at the center of mass wealth destruction.)
Let my comments stand against my own leaders: leaders that start since I was a boy in the '50s. 
The scenarios that are playing out are all a product of the central banking and monetary policy over the last four decades and the destruction of honest capital markets by the monetary central planners who run the printing presses. Furthermore, this has fostered monumental fiscal profligacy among politicians who have been told for years now that the carry cost of public debt is negligible and that there would always be a central bank bid for government paper.  (Excepted from Ron Paul's speach on leaving public service). 
Now, I have very good friends that are bankers and Quants in NY.  They vehemently disagree with me that free markets are the best way to allocate economic resources correctly.  That argument is valid, in that individually, people do not make rational choices when it comes to money, and supposedly, the monster from Jekyll Island (the Federal Reserve) should be  much better able to handle US finances.  How is that working out?  Let me introduce you to "Bubbles" Greenspan -- where we lurched from one bubble to another in irrational exuberance.  Then let me introduce you to Bennie and the Ink Jets - print money and accumulate debt like there is no future repercussions. 
"To every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction" Newton..  Or the Chinese concept of Ying and Yang. 
Central Planners of the One World Government listen up:  Adam Smith  in the 1700's described the invisible hand, and that as long as the invisible hand was allowed to function freely, economies would allocate resources appropriately.  As far as I can tell, Dr. Benanke, you have totally overthrown that principle of your education as an economists.  You and your colleagues in the central banks world-wide believe you know what is best, and for the .1% of the bankers in the world, you are right.  What about all the rest of us where low interest rates and inflation are destroying our savings.  Savings we can fund our children's and grandchildren's education and our own retirement?  Did you forget about us, or is the Federal Reserve's only mandate is make sure the wealthy get way way more wealthy, and the poor get enough freebies to keep them from rioting. 
Now my dear friends in NY (and they are even when they get angry with me), I ask you to prove that under Bush and Obama that the middleclass of the US is growing and prospering.   We can certainly find statistics (without my manipulation) from the US Government that shows exactly the opposite is taking place - the middle class is in its death throws. 
Maybe we will all redefine the middleclass someday as earning minimum wage and paying rent on a government supplied apartment.  And when the vast majority of people no longer can afford to buy property (farms, homes, commercial property), then personal property will be a thing of the past only held by those that are in with the current ruling class.  Will this happen?  It is happening already, but people are overwhelmed with all their day-to-day problems to understand:
"The rich get richer, and the poor (use to) have children..., in the meatime inbetween time, ain't we got fun..."
 
Remember, gentle reader, that you can invest your savings and make money.  But I will remind you of what one of my dearest friends (a Quant in NY) said: All those people that think they can beat Wall Street are living in a fantasy world (actually he cussed alot 'cause that is how Quant's talk).  In other words, he does not believe the average retail investor can make money in the markets. And I would agree in the sense you cannot beat the markets in the short term.  One must own companies and learn to re-invest the proceeds and use compounding to your advantage.
 
And we need to learn how to invest outside the US diversifying in other countries and currencies.
 
My very best wishes to all (and especially best wishes to those that hate my stance on free markets.) 
 
 
 




Wednesday Morning Early - Warning 03/27/2013

Good Day from Eastern British Colombia...  A beautiful place in a troubled world.  We (my wife and I) highly recommend a visit to Christina Lake and a boat trip up to the National Park.  :)

Yesterday in the stock market deserves a special comment.  Therefore, I'm publishing early.  I absolutely claim that I have no idea where the stock market will be at the end of the day, a month from now or even a year from now.  What I can say, is that yesterday's volume on the NYSE was the lowest volume this year, and there is no holiday in sight.

Secondly, I can also say the stockmarket went up when all the news was mixed (to poor) at best. 

Basically, things did not add up yesterday, with the "defensive" sectors (Health Care, utilities, consumer staples and telecom) leading the way.  Volume was only 558 mln shares.  Also, if you go into stockcharts.com and compare S&P 500 (SPY) against Treasury Notes (TLT), you will notice that treasuries advanced along with the stockmarket.  That is very unusual, and it should perk up your attention.

The DOW set a new all time closing high and the S&P 500 finished less than two points away.  All this looks bullish, but there were nearly (I will even declare zero) no good fundamental reasons for the market to move like it did yesterday. 

Europe is certainly in the forefront of being the leader in bad news. 

Italy is back in the spotlight with reports suggesting it is unlikely a coalition government will be formed.  New elections will have to be held (unless something changes in the next few hours). 

The Bank of England indicates today in the "Financial Times" that banks have sterling 25Billion capital shortfal. 

France announced their final Q4 GDP. It was a gulp, awful -.3%.

Today the USA has Pending Home Sales at 7:00 AM PDT (10:00AM).   They are expected to be up 2.5% (which is a decrease in % from last months). 

Today the stock market is down.

I will cover currencies later during the day.

For today, be careful, and be sure if you are long in the stock market (except for very long term investments) that you keep your stops close (or take profits).  You can also hedge if you understand how by using options.  Right here is an excellent place to buy insurance for your long positions.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Tuesday's Musing 03/26/2013


Good Morning America... 

Did you miss me over the weekend?  Sorry, I was not feeling well at all, but I went for a long walk yesterday, cleaned up some logs that fell on the property over the winter, and moved firewood. After that, while exhausted, I feel slightly better this morning.  I hope you feel terrrrrific...

There is really not much to write about.  You all know about Cyprus and the fiasco called Central Banking.  I hope you will join me in wishing the people of Cyprus well.  I do not like it when people suffer; nor am I of the mind to blame the individuals for the lunacy we call fiscal management in the Western World. 

And talk about Lunacy -- Russia is supplying arms and money to Syria's government, while the USA (and some of Europe) are funneling money to the Syrian Rebels.  And we learn that Russia has been using the Cypress banking system in order to funnel money to Syrian's government.  Now, gentle reader, what makes it our business to support Muslim radicals in overthrowing their governments?  How has that worked out in Libya, Egypt, Lebanon?  Boy, those Muslims governments in Libya, Lebanon, and Egypt have certainly shown they are friends of the USA, and then after the Muslim Brotherhood denounces the USA over and over, we send Egypt the most modern jets we have?  Wow... Lunacy at its height.

US Dollar -- US Economy

There is a great deal of important economic news today, and at 8:00 AM PDT, none of it has had any major effect on the stock market as the stock market hurriedly goes no where.  Even Google is going no-where.    
  1. ·         US Consumer Confidence -- Don't look now, but something is wrong somewhere. The DOW and the S&P are continuing to make new highs, while US consumer confidence is making lows.  According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence plunged from 69.6 to 59.7.  That is ugly, and getting uglier.  This will assuredly be attributed to the impact of the sequestration.  The job market is lower but not uniformly negative.  Looking forward, people are reporting that jobs are getting easier to acquire.  Consumers are confident that with the government programs they can buy a house again.  Basically the report brings questions whether the consumer can help the economy any time soon.  Consumer spending in homes, autos and appliances have to hold up, or the economy is headed down. 
  2. ·         Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -- Missed expectations... The media is spinning this report as mostly positive, but has some negatives.  The news on all manufacturing in the US is mixed. 
  3. ·         New Home Sales -- Missed Expectations.
All the mostly-semi-somewhat-otherwise rumors/news, is causing a pause.  Not a downturn - oh no.  Not an upturn -- except the market's were up overnight, and therefore, the DOW and so-on are up (but not up if you look at the prices since the opening.

So readers:  What does Barak Obama want at this point?  All the Whitehouse rhetoric in the last 2 weeks has been toward Immigration and then gun control.  Remember before the sequester when the President stumped the country speaking before every powerful Labor Union he could find: we will have Financial Armageddon?  I will leave it up to you.  The Bankers are in control, and they have huge huge huge piles of money that must be invested somewhere.  Can they prop up the market, and is that what President Obama wants them to do at this point?  I cannot help but think (correctly or incorrectly) that Mr. Obama now has skin in the game to make the economic situation look as bad as possible in order to justify his statements and bring the Republicans into line for budget negotiations.  

On the other side, the Republicans know this, but they are splintered and cannot really make a stand (apparently).  So, gentle reader, if you were the Democratic President, how would you set your strategy in order for the Democrats to look like the good guys, while continuing to put the US citizen into debt slavery while at the same time convincing the majority (52% approval rating of Obama at last count last week from Rassmussen) that it is in the citizen's best interest to go into debt slavery, back the banks, and put into debt bondage the their kids?

S&P 500 And DOW

The commitment of traders is showing the funds (hedge funds, ETFs, and Mutual Funds) are buying.  This is normally bullish, but the funds have reached an absolute historic long position.  The market is still positioned for a major correction.  Caution is advocated.  Long-term (2+ year) investments in excellent companies is appropriate (per my newsletter).  Anything else is highly speculative.
Commericals are selling the DOW.  If one is long in anything beside long term investment, protect your profits.  You can do that by selling, or you can buy insurance with PUT options.  But be sure to protect any short term and medium term profits in long positions. 

Gold and Silver

After the Cyprus crises was more or less resolved, Gold has gone down again.  However, last week, Funds are now buying Gold big time.  This indicates an uptrend acceleration for the near term.   Gold would have to close below 1527 on the futures markets to indicate a new bear leg was in place.  We are getting closer to a short term buy (but only short term).
Silver is in the same position.  US manufacturing must improve more than it has if Silver were to lead the way to a new bull-trend in front of Gold. 
Trends are mixed, and unless the global political world (or financial world) has a major catastrophe in the works, who knows -- bet on chop - not long term up-trend.

The Goldminers Index ($BPGDM) has given a buy signal.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM
 
Here is the wild card -- THE US DOLLAR!  You read rightly, and it restates my position that currencies are good indicators that something is going on.  The US dollar has surged in value over the past few months.  This is "HOT MONEY" flowing into the US dollar, and large funds have moved into extreme positions in dollars.  Also, the commercials have been buying dollars for 5 weeks, but last week Commercial selling surged.  This could indicate an end to the $$$ uptrend.
 
If the dollar falls, look for Gold (and likely silver) to increase substantially over 2-6 weeks. 


 
Well, it was difficult to dig out anything new, useful or even interesting that you did not already know.  The big picture is still muddled as the Central Planners (Central Banks) control (more or less) everything.  Fundamentals that can be interpreted by retail investors are minimally (or not at all) in effect. 

Have a great day.  Remember to hug your teenager.  My heart goes out to them as they struggle to become adults in a chaotic world.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Friday's Quick Note 03/22/2013


Good Friday Morning...  That great day when the week's stress comes to an end, and we can look forward (if we are lucky) to spending time with our families and friends.

In most markets yesterday, there is little to review.  The markets were choppy everywhere.  Cyprus continues to "worry", but asset pricing does not show much angst. 

US $


I'm very surprised at the strength of the Euro.  One would think with the problems in Cyprus and the fall over to Greece, that the Euro would be much weaker. 

The US economic news has been really good, and certainly there is little good economic news in Europe (even if they did not have all these small country crises). 

Folks, currencies and equity markets are indicating the investors (hedge funds and commercials) are unconvinced that the US is the place to invest with all the debt the USA has accumulated. 

According to my theory, the investors don't want to invest in the US currency or bonds, but where do they go?  No currency that is freely traded and no bond markets that are freely traded are looking like good investments. 

Please consider: The Bank of Japan is printing money like there is no tomorrow.  The Bank of England and the UK are facing a triple-dip recession.  China is slowing, and their currency is not freely traded. Canada is showing some stress. All these factors only are allowing the US$ to remain afloat - not healthy.

China and Reserve Currency


As you likely know, the US $ is the reserve currency of the world.  China's actions over the last few years indicate they want to remove the US$ as the reserve currency.  For example, this morning a government spokesman in Beijing announced an agreement with Brazil for 190 billion renminbi worth of swap agreements between Brazil and China.  These swaps take the US$ out of the international trade into their own local currency. 

This is only one of many steps that China is taking to undermine the currency status of the US$.

Folks, also never forget that China's military is not a friend of the US or US allies (such as Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea). 

Ending This Report


My wife and I help with the Red Cross in this area.  This morning a family was burned out of their home on the Canadian Border.  We will prepare the relief measures, and all that takes time. 

We are also helping one of the local businesses whose point of sale and bookkeeping systems were compromised from the Internet.  Sigh... Even small business need to learn that if they attach to the Internet using it as a business medium, they need to protect their systems. 

I'll give you a hint from this small business.  The business never had a threat and system break-in until the local Internet Vendor  a month ago provided them with high speed DSL to the Internet, installed a wireless LAN, and gave every computer in their place access to the Internet -- including backup of their Accounting to the cloud.  (Before, their Internet access was limited to one POS computer using dial-up).  The local ISP installed the router, and configured the computers to access this. Was there any security implemented at the router level?  (Any at all, firewall? WEP passwords? monitoring? )  NO!  Then that means anyone coming into the parking lot could use that wireless Internet.  Whose responsibility was it to warn the business owner (and they are computer illiterate), and to make sure the security was there? 

POS systems are inherently insecure, and they need special attention if you do secure them, due to the fact they need to access accounting, charge card systems, an so-on.  So, usually they don't have much security, but they rarely have access to the Internet directly either.  The lack of security shows up in many ways, but the most usual one (from our observation of small business) is to have one user for the POS Operating System that is the same user as on the Accounting System OS.  And that user on the POS has no password ('cause it is a pain if anything changes in the Accounting system regarding groups and users that causes the POS to have to change). 

(And if any of you that run a medium size retail business think they should go out of business, then be thankful you have the money to hire someone like myself to help you with security, and you have something like Active Directory or LDAP to manage it.  Most small businesses do not have that money to design and maintain their networks and all the security.)

Almost no one I meet (except computer jocks in medium to large business) understand that anyone from the Internet can log onto your system.  Your only protection is passwords, firewalls, and encryption. And people have no idea that it is very easy at the Internet Point of entry (not just the ISP) to decode the headers to understand who the user is (for Windows people -- the user is where you define the users in Control Panel and set up passwords.) 

Folks, breaking into a system is relatively easy because of all the flexibility for logging in from the Internet.  It takes planning and expenses to protect the business.  Small businesses usually do not have the desire (or the money or both) to maintain security.  These problems are not what you would know as Virus and Trojan threats.  Those threats can be handled by Symante, McAfee, Sophos, and 100s of other vendors for a small amount (in context).  Those are necessary.  The local security of the system so that is protected and can be accessed only by those authorized is a much bigger threat and much more expensive to set up. 

And, if any of you jocks out there think you are protected, let me introduce you to Dark Hat and Anonymous.  However, small businesses are not likely to be threatened by them, and Small business owners must be helped to protect themselves because they do not even know their vulnerability until they've been attacked (and know they've been attacked). 

Of course, no one will read this blog, and even if you do, unless you are managing a large IT system, you cannot imagine the problems security raises at this point.

Have a good weekend, and be sure to hug your teenager this weekend.  I don't know how to help them really, but I know the current social environment is not easy for them to cope with.  Did you ever wish you could do something magical to help them?

 

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Thursday 3/32/2013


Good Thursday Morning... It is a great morning to be alive.


I missed yesterday, although I do not think that is a big deal for any of my readers. I did hear from 2 of my German friends who wondered what my final thoughts on Cypress were.

And as for thoughts on Cypress -- Bernanke - Cypress did NOT really have an effect...

Yes and No, Dr. Bernanke... I suspect, but can't prove, that the Central Bankers (probably with your knowledge if not consent) floated a trial balloon to see if confiscating people's savings was acceptable.

The answer around the world was "NO"... That baloon and the answer were the only reason Cypress gained so much press. The only kind of governments that confuscate people's savings are dictatorships -- Communists, Dictators, and other Despots. I sincerely hope, Dr. Bernanke that our leaders (elected leaders) think very seriously about this.

But Gentle Reader -- you need to understand this down to your very soul. Inflation steals people's savings (but the theft is more subtle than the Cypress plan). You need to realize that never (not once in history) has printing fiat money resulted in anything but inflation.

And put this in your hat as well. We, the People, do not elect the Federal Reserve Chairman or the Presidents of each Federal Reserve area. Whatever they do stands above the people, and with the Banks (that depend on the Federal Reserve) TOO BIG TOO FAIL, we can only observe what is going on AND Pray (or hope if you are not Christian or Muslim) it will turn out all right. It will take a crises of substantial magnitude before any new monetary strategy can be put in place.

One final thing to remember... Dr. Bernanke was put in by President George W. Bush. Dr. Bernanke has reigned the full term of President Obama. Therefore, we can only conclude that Dr. Bernanke's program is acceptable to both parties, and may help to explain that with the exception of the Tea Party, the Republican's do not raise more furor.

=============================

Currencies are a reflection of the policies of the governments that issue the curriences. If we follow the currencies, we also have to look below the covers when price change is unusual. (This is different than suggesting we - you or I -- invest in currencies. Investing in currencies takes much deeper study than I do.)

FOMC

The FOMC meeting did not change anything. Policy makers revised their economic growth of the USA from 3% to 2.8% in 2013. (Actually, something dramatic has to happen if we even achieve 2.8% growth, as we are nowhere near that at the moment.)

FOMC seemed (stress seemed) to feel that the recent good economic data for the USA was not going to offset the negative impacts of spending cuts and tax increases from the sequester. 

Most of the FOMC members think that the first raise in interest will be in 2015.

What the bond traders want to know, and what we should also want to know, is when the Federal Reserve will start reducing their bond purchases. Dr. Bernanke was very vague about that saying: "As we make progress toward our objective, we may adjust the flow rate of purchases from month to month to appropriately calibrate the amount of accommodation. We think it makes more sense to have our policy variable, which is to say the rate of the flow of purchases will respond in a more continuous or sensitive way to changes in the outlook."

Wow... that would make the most hardened politico applaud with envy. So you kind of maybe understand the outlook -- economic growth and improvement in employment. So, FOMC will remain accommodating as long as FOMC' projection is going down (from 3 to 2.8%) and unemployment (as defined by questionable data) is > 6.5%

Is NOT he saying that economics of the USA are still unstable, and that if and when they pull back QE, if next month the indicators change they could re-institute QE?  If so, that is QEternity unchanged.

Basically, Dr. Bernanke and the FOMC are saying we will continue to provide drugs of a stronger and stronger sort in order to keep the good feelings going.

So, my good readers... When is printing currency providing too much currency? When does the "tipping point" occur that the money is worthless, and cannot be used to buy foreign goods?

If you are fiscally conservative, then be afraid, be very afraid. Why? Because Janet Yellen very likely will take over from Dr. Bernanke, and she is a financial liberal the likes of which only occurs in Nancy Pelosi (her friend).

Currencies -- not much change

Currencies are treading water after Dr. Bernanke's speach yesterday. All that is happening is in general the currencies world wide overnight are slightly moving up against the dollar. Gold is also moving up slightly.

The currency traders world wide do not seem to be worried about Cyprus. The media is the one that made a big deal of it. The banks in Cyprus remain closed, and probably won't reopen until at least tomorrow, and it may be Monday. Look for Russia (yes Russia) to make some deal with Cyprus banks. The EU should be very worried about that, especially Germany.

Can you tell me why they should be worried?

UK Pound

UK pound reached a three week high against the $$$. Why? Mostly due to a big surge in retail sales, and that surge brought hope that the UK will not slip into a triple-dip recession.

The UK is adding more tax revenuers (tax collectors) to improve their collections. UK Chancellor Osborne plans to cut taxes for low earners and finance that with better collection of existing taxes. Good luck Master Chancellor.

UBS thinks this bounce will be short lived.

Economic Indicators Today -- Big Day? No Big Deal so far

·         Existing Home sales -- Missed expectations, but is still pretty good. The actual number of existing homes on the market is at its lowest point in 14 years. -- Result -- mixed

·         Leading Indicators -- GOOD -- beat expectations

·         Philadelphia Fed Survey -- EXCELLENT -- beat expections by a mile.

·         Results -- stock market is chopping; going nowhere on small volume. Unless things turn around in New York Later, the stock market is giving no signs of going higher (after a new record in the DOW yesterday) or down (or in other words, there is no real worry).

·         VIX (Volatility Index) is 13+ - no worries here either.

·         Oracle had a terrible report, and is weighing in on the tech sector. VIX is not indicating, however, that the market is going to correct based on Oracle. Now if Google should have a negative report like that, things would be different (why? don't ask me, as Oracle has real assets, and Google has marketing.)

Risk and Reward


A small number of my newsletter readers wanted to know how they could eliminate all risks.  I have a theory that life is a risk, and there is no way to eliminate all risks.  We cannot forecast the future with any accuracy in any area of our lives.

We must remember:  To gain we must risk something.  

I often think about education, and the investment we must make in our own lives and the lives or our children.  Today, how do you guide your child into making the correct decisions about education?  Many years ago, we could educate ourselves and become an employee of a large business, and spend our lives there.  Life-time employment is a very rare occurrence in the USA at this point.  We could once tell our children, join the armed services, and they will train you and provide a college education afterwards.  With the new viewpoint on cost cutting (after the sequester) they won't pay for college education. 

Once your sons or daughters could train to become an MD, and if successful become a very economically successful part of society.  Today, one would spend $100,000s of dollars to become a doctor, and make an upper-middle-class income as an employee if fortunate enough. 

All these decisions are risks we take.  Becoming an MD is a large risk in money and effort.

Investing (or trading) is about taking risks, minimizing those risks, and hopefully garnering the reward.  Since risk is a part of life it is better to embrace risk.  And by embracing it, we learn to manage it. 

Risk brings on worry, and lots of worry brings on stress.  Then it makes sense to minimize worry, and in turn that suggests minimizing risk.  Risking little on a single investment lets you worry much less, reducing stress.  And therefore, my newsletter readers know my methodology for portfolio allocation which limits the risk I take on any single investment.

One of the things I had to overcome was the idea that investing (or trading) was gambling.  I was raised by grandparents who came through the Great Depression, and anything outside being an employee with a labor union was gambling. (Which means of course, that they did not own their own business.)  I then had to learn that owning your own business was no more risky than being an employee of Hewlett-Packard which HP at this point in history lay people off without any remorse (or warning).  And the older I got, the harder it was to get a new job after being laid off (for example when MCI was bought by World-Com, and we were released without ado and no more than 2 weeks' severance pay). 

Then I realized that Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Warren Buffet are all speculators.  In fact they are all "BIG" risk takers.  Speculation on a business or investing in other business is speculation on the future, and the "hope" there will be a reward to the risk taken.  The kind of speculation the folks mentioned above take is not gambling, but that distinction is for another diatribe when I have nothing else to share. 

After investing for a while, I came to the realization it was not so much when I invested whether I would be successful, but how was I going to exit?  (Yes, Dr. Bernanke, you've risked a huge stake of my future and my fellow citizen's future, and you have not yet discovered and/or revealed how you will exit.) 

So then to make investing more than gambling, I must have an investment plan, and that plan can be related to a business plan.  That plan needs to include what I will invest in, how I will invest, how much per investment, when to take a loss and when to take a profit. 

(Please note, when I was in San Francisco at Microsoft R&D during the late '90s, I observed people risking everything on Internet stocks using leverage.  I watched them hold the companies until it went to zero.  I came to the realization that psychologically, people do not want to take a loss, and they only do so only when they are forced to do so - either through a margin call or through the company going out of business.  I escaped those losses because I never invested in stocks in those days (except what came to me through options granted by the company I was working for). 

The other side to the coin was "greed".  Greed is built into our natures.  Greed is "always wanting more".  I observed people in Internet days having a large amount of paper wealth, and leveraging that wealth into the same companies (and those companies had no assets or profits).  The investors wanted more.  People use to go to the lunch room and trade on the computers like it was some video game.  Did they have a profit target?  No... Did they know when to get out if the market corrected?  No...  In effect without a game plan, they were gambling; not running a business. 

Summarizing Investing and Risk:


1.      Have a detailed investment Plan

2.      Know what the signals are for entry

3.      Know how much to risk (suggest no more than 2% of your equity on any trade)

4.      Know when to take profits

5.      Know how to use compounding to accumulate wealth...

And yet wait:  The Gambler knew the answer to this.  The ideas are all in these lines.

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

Now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."

Kenny Rodgers, The Gambler Lyrics

So are we gambling?