Friday, March 29, 2013

Good Friday Musings - 3/29/2013

Good Morning America...

Oh, I lost my Chautauqua on Good Friday where I wondered how in the world in atheists nations we all come to party on Good Friday and Easter.  We shut down everything (except the Federal Government in the USA), and we can't really do business; so we party.  


Can It Happen in the USA (or Canada)?  
For several days I've written about Cypress in my blog, facts (as I knew them), and asking if it could happen in the USA. Now lots of analysts are asking the same thing. Let me introduce you to Ellen Brown.  http://seekingalpha.com/article/1306931-it-can-happen-here-the-confiscation-scheme-planned-for-u-s-and-u-k-depositors?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

"Confiscating the customer deposits in Cyprus banks, it seems, was not a one-off, desperate idea of a few eurozone "troika" officials scrambling to salvage their balance sheets. A joint paper by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England dated Dec. 10, 2012, shows that these plans have been long in the making; that they originated with the G20 Financial Stability Board in Basel, Switzerland (discussed earlier here); and that the result will be to deliver clear title to the banks of depositor funds."  
The following is from:: http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/gsifi.pdf

"The financial crisis that began in 2007 has driven home the importance of an orderly resolution process for globally active, systemically important, financial institutions (G-SIFIs). Given that challenge, the authorities in the United States (U.S.) and the United Kingdom (U.K.) have been working together to develop resolution strategies that could be applied to their largest financial institutions. These strategies have been designed to enable large and complex cross-border firms to be resolved without threatening financial stability and without putting public funds at risk. This work has taken place in connection with the implementation of the G20 Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions." 

"The goal is to produce resolution strategies that could be implemented for the failure of one or more of the largest financial institutions with extensive activities in our respective jurisdictions. These resolution strategies should maintain systemically important operations and contain threats to financial stability. They should also assign losses to shareholders and unsecured creditors in the group, thereby avoiding the need for a bailout by taxpayers. These strategies should be sufficiently robust to manage the challenges of cross-border implementation and to the operational challenges of execution."

There is no indication that any amounts insured by the FDIC would be protected in the case of a Bank going bankrupt.  This cannot even be remotely considered an oversight as the FDIC is co-authoring this paper.  The German's, specifically in the original Cypress deal, insisted on "private sector participation" which translated by someone (me) far away suggests someone other than the Central Banks need to take losses.  As I stated yesterday, this approach started with the "Greece Haircut".    

Since I cannot substantiate any claims of illegal activity on behalf of the Banks in the USA, I can only ask you: is there any indication in the USA banking system that would put the depositors in even a worse position than what is happening in Cypress?  May I suggest you do some research on how certain large banks (start with BofA) passed their stress test, when just a few months before, almost none of them could. Why would that be of interest?  Start with remembering Lehman brothers which started the fiscal panic in 2007-08. 
When Lehman failed unsecured creditors -- notice that bank depositors are unsecured creditors -- received 8 cents on the dollars invested with Lehman.  And now, this... The depositors in these large banks (BofA, CitiBank, etc) are not even senior creditors (read that FDIC document).  

The reason that Lehman investors were senior creditors was that derivatives counter-parties require collateral for any exposures.  The 2005 bankruptcy reforms made derivatives counter-parties senior to unsecured lenders (remember that?, you don't?  Guess what these things come back to haunt).  

In late 2011, Bank of America moved a huge percentage of its derivatives from Merrill Lynch operations to its depository.  Why?  Bloomberg:  "Bank of America Corp. (BAC), hit by a credit downgrade last month, has moved derivatives from its Merrill Lynch unit to a subsidiary flush with insured deposits, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation…"  

In June 2012, Bloomberg was reporting that BofA's holding company was holding almost $75 trillion (TRILLION?) of derivatives according to the OCC.  Approximately $53 Trillion were within Bank of American parent.  (This is the notional value of the trades.)

Is BofA the only one?  Bloomberg: "That (BofA) compares with JPMorgan's deposit-taking entity., JPMorgan Chase Bank which contained 99 % of the NY firm's $79 Trillion of notional derivatives."  

Hello Houston, NY, Guantanamo  we got a problem.  There would appear to be something very wrong (legally) with the Federal Reserve, the FDIC and any other oversight of Bank's doings.  The 2005 bankruptcy law revisions move derivatives counter-parties to first in line; i.e., they grab the assets firsts (which just happens it could be your deposits if you bank with one of these folks).  

Does this mean that this could be tantamount to shifting transfer of derivative risk from Merrill Lynch to the taxpayer via the FDIC?  If you understood that question at all, you would  conclude first Derivatives of a Bank would be covered, then the FDIC (funded via of taxpayer money) would have to make good on all deposits up to $250,000.  

Revisiting Lehman again, then.  First, in any scenario from one of these Too Large To Fail Banks, and it is impossible to imagine an orderly shutdown as the derivative counter-parties grab for the assets.  That leads to abrupt insolvency.  

Lehman over one weekend became insolvent after JP Morgan grabbed the collateral.  
Let go back further to the savings and loan crises.  FDIC did not have enough in deposit insurance receipts to pay Resolution Trust Corporation wind-down vehicle.  The FDIC had to receive emergency funding from Congress.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis  

OK, I can't help think of Valdimer Putin (Russia)  "The Central Bank was not just a bank but a regulator of the financial system and the main institution of state macroeconomic policy, he said."  Oh, my dear enemy, you are able to be honest about it at least.  Folks, can you observe central planning and control by Finance?

Let me end this part of the dialogue and encourage you to read Ellen Brown's article. What I've said above is covered in detail in her article.  Please keep this in mind also.  Any decent Academic study of the FDIC (where it is not being paid for the Banks or the Government) concludes the FDIC is woefully underfunded in case even one of these TBTF banks fail.  

Yes, folks, it appears the Banks in the USA are fully positioned to do much more than Cypress did, and it will fall onto the taxpayer to cover if a Bank becomes illiquid from super derivatives (as it did in Spain, Greece, Cypress and soon to be other countries in Europe.)

I would also like to state again and again.  What is happening is not attributable to Republicans or Democrats stand alone.  That means centralize TBTF banks happened under every President since the monster from Jekyll Island was created.  Who are the foxes that putting in the laws for limiting access to the Hen House?  (Hello! Paulson - hello Goldman Sachs, Geithner - only banking job was federal Reserve, Jack Lew - hello Citigroup)

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