General Information and Analysis
For the first time ever, the majority of Americans are scared of their own federal government. A Pew Research poll found that 53% of Americans think the government threatens their personal rights and freedoms. http://www.people-press.org/2013/01/31/majority-says-the-federal-government-threatens-their-personal-rights/Majority Says the Federal Government Threatens Their Personal Rights US citizens are concerned about our currency as well; even if Dr. Klugman is not concerned. It appears the more wealthy (or very wealthy) are not holding US financial assets (bonds and currencies) and are storing their wealth in art, antique cars, and overseas bank accounts in "safe havens". This buying and saving binge often proceeds major
The Economist reported in November, "This buying binge. is growing distrust of financial assets."
US
Comment: (Data from 2/12/2014)
Data for2/12/2014
|
Measure
|
Indicator
|
Ranking
|
Yesterday
|
Weekly RSI (14)
|
WeeklyRSI
|
63.6
|
Neutral
|
63.4
|
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
|
200 MVA
|
6.84%
|
Bullish
|
6.87%
|
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
|
Slope55MA
|
0.07%
|
Bearish
|
0.02%
|
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
|
ADX(14)
|
27.89
|
Bullish
|
29.38
|
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
|
RSI(3)
|
88.80
|
Overbought
|
90.00
|
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev
|
ATR(90)
|
1.31%
|
Volatile Neut
|
1.31%
|
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
|
MACD
|
-1.040
|
Bullish (for Stocks)
|
-0.940
|
The table above
is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P 500. I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for
the USA stock market. For day traders:
You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend. However, looking at any daily chart over lots
of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random.
The large correction to the upside after the near
collapse starting the month is slowing down both in range and volume. Given how investor/traders have acted since
2010, the current path of least resistance is UP - The bull is not in control,
but is regaining its strength.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Friday - Useful on Wedsday
2/12/2014
Tue. 2/11/2014
|
2/10/2014
|
|||
High
|
1819.50
|
High
|
1796.00
|
|
Low
|
1794.25
|
Low
|
1786.25
|
|
Close
|
1813.50
|
Close
|
1794.75
|
|
R2
|
1834.50
|
R2
|
1802.25
|
|
R1
|
1824.25
|
R1
|
1798.75
|
|
Pivot
|
1809.25
|
Pivot
|
1792.50
|
|
S1
|
1799.00
|
S1
|
1789.00
|
|
S2
|
1784.00
|
S2
|
1782.75
|
|
Range
|
25.25
|
9.75
|
||
Stocks –
Zeb's VUE:
Dr. Yellen had little (in my
opinion and most other analysts opinion) new to say, but it had an immediate
effect on the market. Neither her
prepared comments nor her answers to questions deviated from Dr. Bernanke's
monetary policy. "Let me emphasize
that I expect a great deal of continuity in the Federal Open Market Committee's
approach to monetary policy." she said.
As stated above we are back in the
pattern price has followed since 2010.
The stock market just put in its best "bull" run 4 days in
over 2 years. Were you short? If so, you just got massively squeezed.
I do not believe we will see any
end to the Federal Reserve purchase of debt; nor an end to budget fiasco in the
USA government. The only question
becomes when do we destroy the USA and become Argentina on steroids? Of course, on one side you have conservative
economists (like Austrian Economists) and on the other hand Dr. Paul Krugman -
who seems to believe debt does not matter; deficits do not matter; we need QE
or as he says "So damn the U3;
full speed ahead"
The right-wingers in this country as at least as bad as the left wingers
about spouting off on their view point. Think: Timing is always an issue. Dr.
Krugman (left-wing economics) is wrong to suggest non of this matters, as in
all history, countries fall when they are accumulating debt at this level, and
when the empire falls, there are hundreds of years of major suffering by
everyone in the world, and despotism is the rule. Right Wing wackos like Limbaugh are full of
their own rhetoric. They make it very
difficult for the Austrian Economic leaders to provide real academic and
scientific work to refute Dr. Krugman.
Nuts to all the right-wing wingnuts...
In the meantime, Mr. Boehner of the Republican party is worse than
useless. The Democrats will grow in
strength now, and he has eaten his children - providing them no support. I do not know what will happen, but it
appears the Tea Party could in fact become a party so that there is a chance
for conservatives to have representation in the US Government. I suspect that is the only possible way for
the Republican Children to survive - while the worthless dinosaur the
Republicans have become goes into its death throes.
Dr. Klugman is vehemently opposed to what he terms right-wing conservative
economic policies. "First, the
right has evidently learned nothing from the unskewing debacle. And second,
right-wingers are totally vested in destroying Obama no matter the consequences
to the country" says Dr. Klugman on his blog. Well, he has a
point if Limbaugh is what people feel are right-wing policies.
