Wednesday, February 12, 2014

February 12, 2014 Zeb’s Vue

General Information and Analysis

 

US


Comment:  (Data from 2/11/2014)
Comment for2/11/2014
Measure
Indicator
Ranking
Weekly RSI (14)
WeeklyRSI
63.4
Neutral
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
200 MVA
6.87%
Bullish
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
Slope55MA
0.02%
Bearish
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
ADX(14)
29.38
Bullish
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
RSI(3)
88.80
Overbought
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev
ATR(90)
1.31%
Volatile Neut
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
MACD
-0.940
Bullish (for Stocks)

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random.
After the correction (and panic) on Monday last week, the stock market has resumed its upward path.   Does that mean the correction is over?  We have moved to back to bullish on almost all technical indicators including the MVAs that most affect short-term behavior (200Day, 100Day, 50Day MVAs). 
In my opinion, Janet Yellen provided not one new thing that should have moved the market yesterday, and yet the DOW industrial has made 6 days of up moves, with yesterday being among the largest since the disaster on 2/3/2014

For what it is worth, the time has not arrived for a true market correction (even a correction in terms of a bull market).  When the time comes, retail traders will unlikely be able to get out with much (if any) of the profits they made in 2013.  There is absolutely no way to prove that, of course.  That kind of assertion is never true except in hindsight.  Monday 2/30/2014 was a warning shot, but we can observe the VIX and realize that FEAR has almost completely disappeared after the 6 days of up moves. 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Friday - Useful on Wedsday 2/12/2014
Tue. 2/11/2014
2/10/2014
High
1819.50
High
1796.00
Low
1794.25
Low
1786.25
Close
1813.50
Close
1794.75
R2
1834.50
R2
1802.25
R1
1824.25
R1
1798.75
Pivot
1809.25
Pivot
1792.50
S1
1799.00
S1
1789.00
S2
1784.00
S2
1782.75
Range
25.25
9.75


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