Monday, February 10, 2014 Zeb’s Vue

General Information and Analysis

US

Comment:  (Data from 2/7/2014)

Comment for2/10/2014	Measure	Indicator	Ranking
Weekly RSI (14)	WeeklyRSI	59.9	Neutral
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)	200 MVA	5.68%	Bullish
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA	Slope55MA	-0.09%	Bearish
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)	ADX(14)	31.50	Bullish
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)	RSI(3)	80.46	Overbought
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev	ATR(90)	1.29%	Volatile/Bear
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)	MACD	-0.180	Bearish

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random.

The technical indicators are mixed after a large bull move to the upside after the bloodbath on Monday.  The week actually closed in positive territory. 

In the very short term, the market is overbought.  However, the most likely scenario is choppy day with downward bias.  There is no significantly meaningful US news today. 

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is still in a sell signal.  The market came off a very high reading which usually indicates a downward reaction.  While the stock market sell off has seemed drastic, in the context of the overall bull market, price is still in the range of a healthy correction - not a crash. 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Friday - Useful on Monday 2/10/2014

Friday 2/7/2014
High	1794.00
Low	1758.25
Close	1793.50
R2	1817.75
R1	1805.75
Pivot	1782.00
S1	1770.00
S2	1746.25

Stocks –

Zeb's VUE:

 The market price is NOT providing clear signals of bull or bear.  $OEXA200R is an indicator that provides a percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 MVA.  (See stockcharts.com)  The indicator (like bullish percent indicator) is useful in indicating bullish, bearish or transition.  At this moment, the information on market breadth are saying the market is not providing clear signals for bull or bear. 

Tomorrow, Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee.  Investors world-wide will be tuned in.  They will be looking for "tone" and "hints" to forward changes in monetary policy.  Given last week's lackluster economic news, investors/traders are back to wondering what the Federal Reserve will do about tapering. 

There is little (if any) news to move the market today.  This is shaping up to be a tough day for day traders.