Tuesday, February 11, 2014 Zeb’s Vue

General Information and Analysis

 

US

 

Comment:  (Data from 2/10/2014)

Comment for2/11/2014	Measure	Indicator	Ranking
Weekly RSI (14)	WeeklyRSI	60.4	Neutral
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)	200 MVA	5.80%	Bullish
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA	Slope55MA	-0.07%	Bearish
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)	ADX(14)	31.18	Neutral
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)	RSI(3)	81.07	Overbought
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev	ATR(90)	1.25%	Volatile Neut
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)	MACD	-0.610	Bullish (for Stocks)

 

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random.

After the correction (and panic) on Monday last week, the stock market has resumed its upward path.   Does that mean the correction is over?  No, as almost every way to measure the stock market prices is mixed.

All eyes are on Janet Yellen and her first testimony before the Finance Committee.  One can never tell how investors will react, but she is not expected to say anything new that will move the markets significantly.  Of course, the markets may react violently one way or the other today based on her "word cloud" and the computer trading associated with such. 

6:44 PST
Dr. Yellen's prepared remarks were released at 5:30 PST.  There were no major surprises.  Here is a summation of what I gleaned:

• The large fraction of the long-term unemployed and those working part-time for economic reasons shows the importance of looking at more than just the unemployment rate when evaluating the condition of the US labor market
• Some of the recent softness in PCE inflation data reflects factors that seem likely to prove transitory
• The FOMC has been watching closely the recent volatility in global financial markets, but does not think at this point that it poses a substantial risk to the US economic outlook
• Asset purchases are not on a preset course; and
• She is committed to achieving both parts of the Fed's dual mandate
• However, she remains on the same page as Dr. Bernanke that the pace of reducing QE will be made in measured steps at future meetings. There was a slight increase in volatility after the pre-release of her testimony. 

As expected, so far there was/is no major surprises.

 

 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Friday - Useful on Monday 2/10/2014

Monday 2/10/2014			2/7/2014
High	1796.00		High	1794.00
Low	1786.25		Low	1758.25
Close	1794.75		Close	1793.50
R2	1802.25		R2	1817.75
R1	1798.75		R1	1805.75
Pivot	1792.50		Pivot	1782.00
S1	1789.00		S1	1770.00
S2	1782.75		S2	1746.25
Range	9.75			35.75

Stocks –

Zeb's VUE:

The market starts out Monday in a holding pattern, and the same might be said for overnight trading in Europe. 

Gold and silver are making a run to break out of range at the low set 12/31/2013.  1/27/2014 saw a breakout, but then immediately retraced.  As of this morning, Gold has broken above the high made on 1/27/2014, although it is giving back some of that gain.