Tuesday, February 04, 2014 Zeb’s Vue

General Information and Analysis

US

It is kind of boring for me to regurgitate overnight news.  One of the best places I know of to get news and commentary from overnight is briefing.com.  Finviz.com is also a good place, albeit the commentators are very opinionated, but the tidbits from MarketPlace, Yahoo and so on are valuable to get a flavor for "Fear" or "Greed".  In turn, that may (stress may) provide insight into how the market will react today.

Comment:  (Data from 2/3/2014)

Comment for2/3/2014	Measure	Indicator	Ranking
Weekly RSI	WeeklyRSI	49.1	Neutral
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)	200 MVA	2.75%	Bullish
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA	Slope55MA	-0.09%	Bearish
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)	ADX(14)	30.17	Bearish
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)	RSI(3)	11.13	Oversold
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev	ATR(90)	1.20%	Volatile Bear
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)	MACD	1.330	Bearish

 

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random.

 

After yesterday, all intermediate and short term indicators are bearish.  The long-term direction (200 Day MVA) is still bullish. 

Yesterday I said: "In the short to intermediate term,  the stock market has turned bearish, with a tendency to have large chops since 1/27/2014.  That indicates the market has a even battle between bulls and bears.  In auction trading theory (CME), this indicates the market has found value on S&P futures between high 1801.25 and low 1761.35.  " 

2/4/2014 5:59 - Market plummeted, and the short term war is in favor of bears.  The SPX went through the resistance without a pause after the economic data yesterday.  The low of Dec. 18 2013 was taken out, and the next low is Nov. 7, 2013 at 1767.99 (1768).  SPX has also taken out the 100 Day MVA (and important psychological support.  1700 on SPX will be a "biggee" for support. 

Today, the overbought situation suggests that the market will have an upday, but on the other side, Price will unlikely test any areas that suggests the correction is over.

The S&P 500 Buillish Pct Index issued a sell signal (albiet it is not strong as it has not broken the P&F trend line off the bottom.)

(Thank you Stockcharts.com and thank you to Mr. Murphy, one of my favorite speakers and book writers, for producing Stockcharts.) 

 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Thursday- Useful on Tuesday 2/4/2014

Yesterday 2/3/2014			1/31/2014
High	1783.75		High	1788.25
Low	1732.25		Low	1761.25
Close	1732.75		Close	1776.50
R2	1801.25		R2	1802.50
R1	1767.25		R1	1789.75
Pivot	1749.75		Pivot	1775.50
S1	1715.75		S1	1762.75
S2	1698.25		S2	1748.50

 

Stocks –