General Information and Analysis
Warren Buffet: “The best way to
minimized risk is to think.”
US
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Comment for 1/2/2014
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Measure
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Indicator
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Ranking
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Weekly RSI
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WeeklyRSI
|
73.5
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OverB
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Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
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200 MVA
|
10.48%
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Bull
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5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
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Slope55MA
|
0.66%
|
Bull
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Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
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ADX(14)
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22.27
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Bull
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Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
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RSI(3)
|
61.04
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Neutral
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Relative Volatility (ATR% vs StdDev over last 90 days
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ATR(90)
|
0.78%
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Normal
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VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
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MACD
|
-0.360
|
Neutral
|
|
|
|
|
|
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The market is bullish with a move toward overbought (on price
only). No indication of trend change from the last
2 weeks of trading.
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|
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The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term
trend in the S&P500. I used the
S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market. For day traders: You may find it useful to
trade in the direction of the trend.
However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading
direction for the day is pretty random.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini - Friday - Useful on Monday 1/2/2014
|
High
|
1846.50
|
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Low
|
1834.25
|
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Close
|
1841.00
|
|
R2
|
1853.00
|
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R1
|
1847.25
|
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Pivot
|
1840.75
|
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S1
|
1835.00
|
|
S2
|
1828.50
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Stocks –
Zeb’s View: Basically, the stock market is rising, period. Overnight in the UK, several analysis are
still fretting over tapering in the US, and what the Eurozone Central Bank will
do. This has caused the oversees stock
market to be down going into the New York opening.
Jobless Claims was published at
5:30. The information is almost useless
as holiday adjustment issues make interpretation difficult. Initial claims were nearly unchanged, down
about 2,000. The prior week was revised
higher by 3,000. The 4 week average
(econoday.com) is not favorable. The numbers
will not smooth out until the middle of January 2014.
Other than that, January has for a
number of years been the precursor for the stock market trend for the
year. That, however, is a tenuous
relationship if a study is made over 100 years.
Generally, the future's market in
stocks is indicating a down opening, with a push to close the gap (at least for
the 1st 15 minutes). Look for the 1st 20
minutes of trading in the Dow Jones Index to indicate direction (or chop).
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