Thursday, January 2, 2014

Thursday, January 02, 20142013 Zeb’s VUE


General Information and Analysis


Warren Buffet: “The best way to minimized risk is to think.”

 

US


Comment for 1/2/2014
Measure
Indicator
Ranking
Weekly RSI
WeeklyRSI
73.5
OverB
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
200 MVA
10.48%
Bull
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
Slope55MA
0.66%
Bull
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
ADX(14)
22.27
Bull
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
RSI(3)
61.04
Neutral
Relative Volatility (ATR% vs StdDev over last 90 days
ATR(90)
0.78%
Normal
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
MACD
-0.360
Neutral
 
 
 
 
The market is bullish with a move toward overbought (on price only).   No indication of trend change from the last 2 weeks of trading.
 
 
 

 

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random. 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini - Friday - Useful on Monday 1/2/2014

High
1846.50
Low
1834.25
Close
1841.00
R2
1853.00
R1
1847.25
Pivot
1840.75
S1
1835.00
S2
1828.50

 

Stocks –

Zeb’s View:  Basically, the stock market is rising, period.  Overnight in the UK, several analysis are still fretting over tapering in the US, and what the Eurozone Central Bank will do.  This has caused the oversees stock market to be down going into the New York opening. 

Jobless Claims was published at 5:30.  The information is almost useless as holiday adjustment issues make interpretation difficult.  Initial claims were nearly unchanged, down about 2,000.  The prior week was revised higher by 3,000.  The 4 week average (econoday.com) is not favorable.  The numbers will not smooth out until the middle of January 2014. 

Other than that, January has for a number of years been the precursor for the stock market trend for the year.  That, however, is a tenuous relationship if a study is made over 100 years. 

Generally, the future's market in stocks is indicating a down opening, with a push to close the gap (at least for the 1st 15 minutes).  Look for the 1st 20 minutes of trading in the Dow Jones Index to indicate direction (or chop). 

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