Thursday, January 16, 2014 Zeb’s Vue

General Information and Analysis

US

Comment for 1/16/2014	Measure	Indicator	Ranking
Weekly RSI	WeeklyRSI	71.7	OverB
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)	200 MVA	10.00%	Bull
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA	Slope55MA	0.46%	Neutral
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)	ADX(14)	16.1	Chop
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)	RSI(3)	68.29	Bull
Relative Volatility ATR vs. 1Stdev	ATR(90)	0.69%	Quiet
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)	MACD	-0.010	bull

 

Comment:

Long term, the bulls are still in control.  VIX is decreasing again, as the market continues to find "value" at this level, and neither the bulls nor the bears can move the market above 2013's high. After Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading, the market appears undecided. 

Technical information from price only is inconclusive, as there has been no trend since December 26, 2013.

 

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random. 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini March Contract - Tuesday- Useful on Friday 1/10/2014

Yesterday			Day Before Yesterday
High	1845.75		High	1834.25
Low	1831.50		Low	1812.75
Close	1841.50		Close	1833.00
R2	1854.00		R2	1848.25
R1	1848.00		R1	1840.75
Pivot	1839.75		Pivot	1826.75
S1	1833.75		S1	1819.25
S2	1825.50		S2	1805.25

 

Stocks –

Zeb’s View:

Technical Indicators are still bullish for the longer term look-back period.  For the short term, prices are not moving, and have not been moving since after Christmas 2013.

Side Comment:  I state the above conclusion, but I've always been concerned about such statements.  The last three days have been days that day traders can make a lot of money as the stock market trended in that time. A trader cannot make a conclusion out of 3 days trading about intra-day trading, but I will still conclude that these last three days do suggest that day traders make money when volatility increases; where volatility is measured via of the range of the day.  However, there is one other factor intra-day trading requires - direction.  Monday's direction was down all day.  Tuesday's action was up all day.  Wednesday's action was up and then very choppy, but it was up.  That kind of day likely meant that for most day-traders, money could have been made in the first hour and given back during the course of the day.  (Which is not to mean that no one out there made money after 7:30 PST  as there are many ways to make money in the chop.

Wednesday's S&P 500 price rose Wednesday on a surprise in Empire State Manufacturing report.  The S&P rallied to the all time high, and then traded in a very narrow range the rest of the day.  On the index (SPX), price closed at a new all-time closing high. 

Today, the market is going to open down, but look for the overnight gap to be closed.  Initial Jobless claims are down 2,000 in the January 11 week.  Economists are saying that the results point to steady conditions in the labor market.  The stock market had "no comment" (so to speak) as the price had no reaction. 

It may be the market price will remain stable until 7:00 AM PST when Philadelphia Fed  Survey and Housing Market Index are released.  Neither of these would normally be big market movers, but where price is stable for almost one month, maybe there will be a surprise that moves the market (although not likely). 

Home Foreclosure's Fall to lowest level in six years.  Bank repossession dropped to 462,970 the least since 2007. 

Intel and American Express report Q4 earnings today.  Analysts are expecting rising revenues and profits from both. 

Watch Glencore mines -  Chinese buyout about to be completed. 

House Passes $1.01 Trillion spending bill.  This will fund the Federal government through September 2014.  Bill will now go to the Senate.

6:38 PST Jim Rodgers investing in Russia...  Russia, I was pessimistic about it for 46 years, I am now investing in Russia.  (Comment:  Jim Roders is a very good investor measured by past results.  Investing in Russia is not for the weak of heart, as Russia and Putin have a way of destroying Capitalism every time it gets started.  High risk trading with high rewards if Mr. Rogers is correct.)