General Information and Analysis
Peter Lynch: “You really don't need our
mutual funds. Most of them aren't that great and never will be. You really just
need to sit around and wait for something that's so good, it'll make you rich without
taking unnecessary risks.”
Warren Buffet: “The best way to
minimized risk is to think.”
Jim Rogers told John Train: “take your money, put it in Treasury bills or
a money-market fund. Just sit back, go to the beach, go to the movies, play checkers,
do whatever you want to. Then something
will come along where you know it's right. Take all your money out of the
money-market fund, put it in whatever it happens to be and stay with it for
three or four or five or 10 years, whatever it is. You'll know when to sell again, because
you'll know more about it than anybody else. Take your money out, put it back
in the money-market fund, and wait for the next thing to come along. When it
does, you'll make a whole lot of money."
US
Comment for 12/26/2013
|
Measure
|
Indicator
|
Ranking
|
Weekly RSI
|
WeeklyRSI
|
72.2
|
OverB
|
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
|
200 MVA
|
9.58%
|
Bull
|
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
|
Slope55MA
|
0.75%
|
Bull
|
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
|
ADX(14)
|
18.2
|
Neutral
|
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
|
RSI(3)
|
88.82
|
OverB
|
Relative Volatility (ATR% vs StdDev over last 90 days
|
ATR(90)
|
1.00%
|
Normal
|
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
|
MACD
|
-0.06
|
Neutral
|
The market is bullish with a move toward overbought (on price
only).
|
The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term
trend in the S&P500. I used the
S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market. For day traders: You may find it useful to
trade in the direction of the trend.
However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading
direction for the day is pretty random.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini - Tuesday - Useful on Thursday 12/26/2014
High
|
1829.50
|
Low
|
1820.50
|
Close
|
1829.00
|
R2
|
1832.50
|
R1
|
1835.50
|
Pivot
|
1826.50
|
S1
|
1823.50
|
S2
|
1817.50
|
Stocks –
Zeb’s View: The USA’s best stocks are continuing their
upward climb. There is a divergence
between very large international companies increasing in price, and the lower
cost stocks who are not participating. The
internals seem to be weakening, while the very best stocks continue to
gain.
Stocks traded up overnight in Asia
and Europe. Holiday trading continues to
be thin, but investors always expect that anyway.
The exodus out of the bond market
continues as measured by ETFs and ETNs.
For those not use to the ebb and flow of the business cycle, bonds have
been in a very long uptrend. The
pressure on USA bonds of all kind is building as the pressure drives interest
rates up. The logic of the value of
bonds is the inverse of what the man-in-the-street is use to. Bonds go up in value when interest rates
fall, and they fall in value when interest rates rise. More
specifically interest rates and credit quality of an organization (governments,
municiples, company bonds) drive bond prices.
“Interest Rate Risk” refers to the propensity of bonds to fluctuate in
price due to changes in interest rates. If no single other thing makes an
impression on you when reading about markets, learn that bonds are subject to
interest rate risk regardless of the issuer, credit rating, insured or guaranteed.
ObamaCare Deadlines – there are no deadlines fools…
Federal and State governments are
extending deadlines in order to get more people signed up for ObamaCare by
January 1. The latest deadline passed on
Tuesday, but almost every government organizations continues to sign people up. Rhode Island, Massacutes and Minnesota have
stated they will allow residents to sign up as late as New Year’s Eve. Insurers are protesting. Does anyone feel sorry for the “poor”
insurance companies?
Would it be all right (with everyone
and the Federal Government) to question how ACA will ever be affordable for the
vast majority of middleclass people?
ObamaCare is nothing but
exceptions at this point, and that observation is no exception to my other
obervations. First the Pelosi
(California) says we need to pass the law before reading it so we can find out
what is in it? (is that lunacy or what in something this large?) We then find
out that certain corporations were exempt from having to participate. Then an exception was made for Unions (after
some threats of going to the streets.)
Then we received an extension because of web site failures. Now we get an extension for enrollment on
Monday December 23… However, 4 days
prior millions of people received their own exemption; hardship. As I understand the hardship exemption, it
was reserved for people who were homeless, bankrupt, or victims of domestic
abuse. On Monday, victims of ObamaCare
(those who lost their once affordable plan due to ObamaCare itself), are no
eligible for a one year extension.
Wall Street Journal: “…HHS rushed
out a bulletin noting that exemptions are available to those who
"experienced financial or domestic circumstances, including an unexpected
natural or human-caused event, such that he or she had a significant,
unexpected increase in essential expenses that prevented him or her from
obtaining coverage under a qualified health plan."
What does that all mean? Exceptions are no longer the exception, and
the only thing standing between complete failure of Obamacare and the walking
wounded is chewing gum exceptions on exceptions.
I have two Grandson’s that are
seniors in Universities. In general,
they both blame the Republicans for all the ObamaCare problems. What in the world? Can any of you explain to me how Republicans
are responsible for the failures of ObamaCare, and the need for one executive
order after another to keep it alive? They believe the Republicans’ have gutted
ObamaCare and that is the reason for the failures?
My understanding: The Affordable
Care Act passed in 2010 with no Republican votes, but with its own funding
mechanisms thanks to a myriad of taxes applied immediately. The Obama
administration had more than three years to focus on delivery without any GOP interference in the executive
branch, which it spent promulgating regulation like the contraception
mandate. Republicans couldn’t manage to defund any of the ACA efforts even after
winning control of the House.
If anyone (including me) does not
think a lame-duck president has any effect on people like my Grandson’s then
think again.
Obama insisted in November that it
is Republicans rooting against the law that has created the failure in
ObamaCare. Washington Post Nov 19: “But the president said staunch opposition
from congressional Republicans is inhibiting the law’s implementation.
“One of the problems we’ve had is
one side of Capitol Hill is invested in failure,” Obama said at the Wall Street
Journal’s CEO Council meeting in Washington. “We obviously are going to have to
remarket and rebrand, and that will be challenging in this political
environment.” (He is of course referring
to Republicans.)
These are non-sense arguments. Opposition on Capitol Hill has had zero
substantive impact on ACA. Opposition
has not impacted funding or development of executive orders overriding and adding
things to the law. Democrats have had
full control over the implementation of ObamaCare.
Furthermore, the assertion the
only problems the White House faces in ObamaCare is marketing and branding is
breathtakingly taking people as STUPID.
If I was charitable (which I like to think I am to the downtrodden) I would
suggest that all of the revelations in the ACA problems are indications of
incompetence from the law makers, to implementers, to business process, to
financing to… I would wonder, after
working form the largest corporations in the world across the world, if most
executives would not have been fired, and a prompt and significant number of
personnel changes would have taken place.
In fact, I think the board would fire (impeach) the president, and move on with new leadership.
Mr. Obama is acting like a spoiled
child instead of major league executive. We are now hearing more insiders wondering why
“heads have not rolled”. http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/190597-white-house-no-shakeup-coming
So I ask you again. How in the world are the Republicans
responsible for the fiasco called ObamaCare?
Please explain it to this old man.
Muni Bonds:
Muni Bonds are set for their worst
annual performance since 1994. The major
reasons are centered around Detroit’s bankruptcy. In addition, San Jose, Ca., Chicago, IL.,
and Puerto Rico have had a major downward impact on muni-bond prices. The news for bond investors in Muni-bonds is
obviously not good for 2014 as there are dozens of cities and local governments
across the USA that are in financial trouble.
China
Japan
Nikkei continues to move up in a
significant bull-market. The Yen
weakened the day before Christmas, and has touched the weakest Yen level since
October 2008. Japan started a Tax-free
investment account, and this is reported to have sparked buying from retail
investors.
As we all know, BOJ is pushing the
envelope on economic stimulus. What
could happen (sooner rather than much later) is that BOJ may run out of
Japanese Government bonds to buy. This
may (stress may) cause BOJ to hold off loosening financial policy more until
late in 2014. Other speculation suggests
BOJ could stop buying government bonds every month, and acquire debt when long
term rates have climbed above some level (whatever they determine the level to be). http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/26/uk-japan-economy-boj-mizuno-idUKBRE9BP02Q20131226
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