General Information and Analysis
Warren Buffet: “The best way to
minimized risk is to think.”
US
Comment for 12/26/2013
|
Measure
|
Indicator
|
Ranking
|
Weekly RSI
|
WeeklyRSI
|
72.2
|
OverBought
|
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)
|
200 MVA
|
9.59%
|
Bull
|
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA
|
Slope55MA
|
0.75%
|
Bull
|
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)
|
ADX(14)
|
20.22
|
Bull
|
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)
|
RSI(3)
|
92.14
|
OverBought
|
Relative Volatility (ATR% vs StdDev over last 90 days
|
ATR(90)
|
.94%
|
Normal
|
VIX - MACD 10/30 (slope down)
|
MACD
|
-0.067
|
Neutral
|
The USA stockmarket is bullish with technical warning signals
that the market is overbought.
|
The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term
trend in the S&P500. I used the
S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market. For day traders: You may find it useful to
trade in the direction of the trend.
However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading
direction for the day is pretty random.
S&P PIVOT ES Mini - Friday - Useful on Monday 12/23/2014
High
|
1829.50
|
Low
|
1820.50
|
Close
|
1829.00
|
R2
|
1832.50
|
R1
|
1835.50
|
Pivot
|
1826.50
|
S1
|
1823.50
|
S2
|
1817.50
|
Read about Pivot points on Investopedia.
Stocks –
Zeb’s View: Basically, the stock market is rising,
period. There is almost no reason to be
short the market except to hedge long positions against a sudden and unexpected
drop. On almost any technical indicator
and market internals, the stock markets (Dow, S&P 500, Russell) are
overbought. The market can stay
overbought for a long time, and a person can be wiped out trading against the
trend.
Stocks traded up overnight in Asia
and Europe. Holiday trading continues to
be thin, but investors always expect that anyway.
In Asia, Japan flat at 16179. Hong
Kong +0.3% to 23243. China +1.4% to 2101. India +0.6% to 21194.
In Europe, at midday, London
+0.6%. Paris +1%. Frankfurt +0.8%.
Unemployment Benefits:
Benefits for over 1 million people
runs out today. The funding for those benefits runs out tomorrow. Since 2008 the USA government has provide up
to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Democrats will attempt to reinstate the provisions in 2014. For those of us who have been laid off in
life through no fault of their own, unemployment benefits are critical. Of course, very long term benefits makes it a
welfare program, but I feel people’s pain.
They would get a job if there was a job available that paid similarly to
the job they were laid off. Many have of
course taking jobs at significant cuts from their previous levels; many in the
service industry at way less than ½ their previous earnings. This is a heart-wrenching problem.
Investors (generally) seem to be
convinced that QE will end in 2014, and the US economy will be able to continue
a solid recovery. However, a revision to
last week’s unemployment numbers added 1,000 unemployed to the rolls. Continuing claims is nearing 3,000K. Both these numbers indicate just how fragile
the labor market is.
China
The official Xinhua news agency
reported China’s economic growth will be 7.6% (2013). Dear Reader, this is impressive growth for an
economy the size of China. This seems to
confirm that China will continue to be the global growth engine in the coming
years.
Keep an eye on the Baltic Dry
Index as the index is a good indicator of China and global growth.
Japan
Nikkei continues to move up in a significant
bull-market.
Japan’s industrial output is up
5%. CPI figures are manageable, and
analysts pretty much concur that the CPI figures are encouraging. Retail sales climbed 4% y/y. Unemployment held steady at 4%.
Inflation is increasing (but
manageable), suggesting that Japan is overcoming deflation that has plagued
them for decades. The most critical
statistic is cash wages. They rose for
the first time in five months; albeit only .5%.
We’ll take it folks. GO JAPAN!!!
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