Monday, December 23, 2013 Zeb’s VUE

General Information and Analysis

On behalf of Zeb, I would like to extend my warmest holiday wishes to the readers of my blog and my newsletter. 

I love hearing from you, as hearing from you I learn.  I hope my information and essays have helped you discover how to get out of debt, and also discover pockets of investment opportunities most people never hear about. 

Readers like you make my work not only educational for me but enjoyable.  Thank you...

Here is wishing everyone of you and your loved ones a wonderful holiday.  May your New Year be filled with love, happiness, peace and prosperity.

Sincerely,

Zeb
 

US

Comment for 12/19/2013	Measure	Indicator	Ranking
Weekly RSI	WeeklyRSI	71.1	Neutral
Long Term MVA (200 day MVA)	200 MVA	.05%	Bull
5 Day Slope of 55 day MVA	Slope55MA	0.76%	Bull
Intermediate Trend (Using ADX)	ADX(14)	17.0	Neutral
Short Term Trend (Daily RSI 3)	RSI(3)	80.71	Over- bought
Relative Volatility (ATR% vs StdDev over last 90 days	ATR(90)	0.87000%	Normal
VIX - MVA distance between 30 MVA and 10 MVA	Vix MVAs	93.00%	Bullish
The market is bullish with normal volatility over the last 90 days.  More over-bought readings are occurring.

The table above is a rating for intermediate and long term trend in the S&P500.  I used the S&P 500 as the indicator for the USA stock market.  For day traders: You may find it useful to trade in the direction of the trend.  However, looking at any daily chart over lots of years, the trading direction for the day is pretty random. 

S&P PIVOT ES Mini - Friday - Useful on Monday 12/23/2014

High  - 1818.00

Low   - 1795.00
Close - 1814.50
R2     - 1827.25
R1     - 1821.00
Pivot  - 1811.75
S1     - 1805.50
S2     - 1796.25

Read about Pivot points on Investopedia. 

Stocks –

 

• Stocks traded up overnight in Asia and Europe.  The S&P futures indicate an up opening, and possibly price falling temporarily to close the overnight gap.

• The Health Care deadlines looms...  This is the deadline for people to sign up where the issurance is due to take effect on January 1, 2014.  The current situation is uncertain due to delay of some of the most important provisions.  Government human navigators, insurance companies, and the Healthcare.gov web site are seemingly (according to reports in NY times, Washington Post, USA Today and so-on) are confused. 

• Health Care premiums hit the middleclass the hardest - New York Times...

• Target's retail sales are plummeting.  This is being attributed to the hackers that stole people's data.  However, there is even more evidence that the drop is a part of the overall trend for retail sales.  RetailNext http://www.retailnext.net/ estimates that overall sales fell several percentage points for brick-and-mortar stores - like Target. 

 

• On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury hit a yield of 2.9% - double the yield in June 2012.  The standard 30-year mortgage hit 4.52% last week.  In November of 2012, Mortgage rates were 3.35%.  Generally, the small investor will worry that tapering will cause a spike in interest rates, and possibly a major correction in the stock market.  However, in my opinion, timing for significantly higher interest rates and '70s type inflation is unknown.  When will higher interest rates spark more QE?  This is unknown, but we can all surmise that the Federal Reserve will add to QE as interest rates go up.  Because if they do not add and lower interest rates, interest rates will hurt LARGE very large Corporations in the USA going forward. 

 

• On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced final Q3 GDP (based on the new calculations) growth of 4.1% compared to the original 2.8%.  This was driven almost entirely by a bounce in Personal Consumption.  Where did that sudden (and unexpected) consumption come from?  Of the $15 billion revised increase in annualized spending, 60% was for healthcare and 27% for gasoline.  Recreational sales increased moderately.  What in the world?  It appears American's are using more gas to visit their doctors.