Friday, December 6, 2013 Zeb’s VUE # 2

Morning Trading in the S&P 500

Before the opening bell I wrote this in the blog:

Are you a day-trader?  Then today after the huge run up in stock market prices over night (really since 8:30 EST), the market more than 80% of the time goes into a funk after the 1^st 15 minutes of trading. 

Even if price should exceed the high of overnight trading, the probabilities are high it won’t be for long.  Also, GDP and Labor reports would suggest tapering, while PCI suggests there won’t be.  That will cause churn as long-term investors will be unsure, and day-traders will try to take advantage of market ranges. 

The first 15 minutes was down (while the DOW went up).  This is normal, as the average has not traded into the uptrend overnight.  The index won’t change until the NYSE opening. 

Then the S&P traded down until 7:00 am, and the next ½ hour was a small range inside bar.  This suggests a choppy day going forward, and the only thing that would change that scenario is some late breaking news (usually around 1:00-2:00PM EST).  

At 11:04 EST (8:04 PST), the market has had a downward bias which was basically choppy.  At the moment, the price is headed back up toward the opening, and will likely find resistance at R2 of the Pivot.  Make no mistake, the pressure is up as there are way more stocks on an upmove than a down move, but in reality, all price is saying at the moment is that traders (and investors) are unsure about tapering, and the market may remain choppy (unless market moving news from FOMC or Europe intervenes).