The Stock Market is UP, DOWN, NoWhere for 5 months.

Yesterday I covered the crosswinds in the market.   Then the trading day started, and without going into any detail, it was strongly up, strongly down, mixed at end.

I listed on my SandP 500 chart that May 14 may be a top for this "short term cycle".  I also understand that cycles are averages, and averages are tricky.  The cycle can end sooner than calculated: they can end well after the date.  And yet, I along with Larry William (Famous trader) find the calculations useful.  When there is conclusive evidence the current up trend is over (which started on 4/14/2014) then I can be more assured of where to trade until the downtrend is over.  That is all...

The vacillation yesterday may have surprised many.  The "talking heads" appeared to be confused at best (or stuck to their position no matter what was going on.)  However, if you observe, the market has been confused all year.  There is very little direction in any market, and Janet Yellen's taking away transparency for Federal Reserve direction makes the markets very unsure.  (Welcome back ghost of Greenspan).

Momentum stocks have had a major valuation correction, and the blue chips have diverged with upward valuation appreciation.

There is no lack of talk (from experts no less) how the USA economy is improving.  Have they looked at racial tensions in the US?  From an old man's perspective, racial tensions are the worst they have ever been in my lifetime.

Have the analysts observed that employment among those age less than 25 is disastrous?

What is obvious (if you watch everyday) is that 2014 is a very difficult market to make money in.  In addition, the markets beyond the stock market are very unsure.

The USA is becoming more Bi-Polar by the moment.  The tensions in the street are building up.  The distance between Liberals and Conservatives is widening with each side escalating the viciousness of the verbal exchanges (and the Bureaucracy like the IRS taking sides).  Worse, is the viciousness of character assassination of the leaders without any proof. These things are disastrous if it continues, and I do not see anyone who can smooth this out.  The vicious exchanges are tearing the country apart, and the Politicos only seem concerned about votes.   When you mix analysis of economy with the Bi-Polar affect, how do you conclude anything except a vortex of hell in the streets?

Looking at the JOLTS report this morning.  JOLTS reports the Labor Department's Job Openings survey.  The job openings are down from February.  To further emphasize non-direction: bad economic numbers during the winter, were blamed on weather.  What caused this large drop from Feb to March in job openings?  And as one might expect, it was not blamed on weather.  Now compare that against Wholesale Trade?

Wholesale Trade surprised to the upside, as wholesale sales surged.  Stock-to-sales are down, suggesting that nation's inventories are lean and well managed.  Watch for business inventory report next week.  To confuse the matters, however, the auto industry report vehicle sales by the manufactures are down.  That was not particularly good news for sure.  But then the build in autos (and inventory) are not distorting the overall picture as the stock-to-sales ratios are down from 1.15 from 1.16.  (This is excluding autos.  Don't you just love analysts? NOT).

In other the words, cross currents are everywhere, and there is little indication in almost any market there is trend.

Agriculture: 

Contrary to what the USA government is reporting for consumer inflation, some agricultural commodities are skyrocketing to the upside. The consumer is particularly feeling the "beef" price increase at the store, but the commodity price on the futures market is down.  Limes are skyrocketing in price.  Florida Orange's have been hit with disease.   Why do you think that agricultural commodities are increasing? While it is too simplistic state in one line,  I think is because of the War Drums being beaten by the Big War Countries (China, Russia, USA and Japan). 

War is bad period.  War is wasteful, period.  It is a waste of time, resources and life.  Disease skyrockets; food is unavailable; sanitary conditions breed uncontrollable diseases.  Awful.

However, war is always good for the price of agricultural commodities.  If you were looking into taking advantage of this upward momentum (short term by the way) then PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund (DBA) is useful.

Gold and Silver?

As any 5 year old could tell you looking at a daily chart: Gold and silver are down.  You can listen to all the Gold Bugs who predict Gold going to the moon. You can listen to anti-gold people; gold is worthless. 

Gold and Silver are down, and if you have the money, invest in some now (but don't risk more than a very small amount of your wealth).  If gold and silver go down more, buy some.  If gold goes to less than $1,000?  Well buy some more.