Discouraged Newsletter Writer

General Information and Analysis

·         Who wants to listen to a Discouraged Newsletter Writer?  No one, so I suppose it does not matter if I write something controversial.  However, today, I'm only documenting my learning experience.

·       It has been several months since I wrote in this blog.  In the meantime, I was busy creating two (no three) strategies for long-term investing.  The first strategy I created, tested, and provided free was a long-term portfolio that required little financial education, very little time required (re-balance once per year), and great discipline to stick with it.  The second was a long-term approach to income investing.  This I also gave away.  The third I did not publish or give away.  I've been trading it real-time since January. It is a monthly approach to sector momentum investing.

·         What did I learn writing a free newsletter? 

1.   Every one of my newsletter readers did not use either strategy.  Not one asked questions about either portfolio.

2.   Using a story in which to introduce the long-term portfolio did not work.  Since there was no feedback, I do not know why it did not work for people.

3.   Income Investing is what people want, but they fight the approach tooth and nail.  The general takeaway I came to realize is that people want to double their money next month; not take a slow approach to building a portfolio of income generating assets.  Yet, everyone of the readers seem to invest their whole retirement in very low yield CDs or US Treasuries, with little or no diversification. 

4.   What does that mean?  Well, I really can only speculate.  It appears that what people want from a newsletter is high-risk investments that never lose, and double one's money (not every year) but monthly. 

5.   I do not think doubling your money every year is possible even for the most professional hedge-fund manager out there, but the newsletter advertisements people get seem to drive people to believe it is possible.

·         I also learned.

·         That I have no idea how to generate enthusiasm.  I have no marketing skills (even though I have some education in marketing). 

·         That what people say, such as I like your newsletter and read it, is not true.  I wrote some blatant controversial things to see if I could get a response.  I know no one read that because some of the more religious among my readers would have vehemently objected. 

·         People do not want to read economic news that discourages them.  Almost all economic news is political in some way.  For example, manipulation of interest rates by the Federal Reserve has Economic consequences.  Those consequences are deeply financial (finance is too deep for my readers).  However, writing about those consequences in general, seem to lead to discussion of political considerations.  (Very rarely would the consequences be positive for President Obama or my least favorite president of all time, George. W. Bush Jr.

 

·         I get discouraged very easily.  What?  Yes, that is why I quite writing this blog; there was no one reading it so what was the purpose?  It turns out, No one read my free newsletter either, even though people had to request in order to receive it. 

So, I will go back to writing the blog.  There are things I want to get down on paper every day.  If those things help anyone who happens to run across this blog, it would be worth my time.  I fully understand no one (except NSA) reads this blog.  For those in NSA?  May you satisfy your need to humiliate, persecute and torture the American citizen. 

However, if a real reader run across the blog and you ask in the comments, I will send you the long-term portfolio strategy for free. 

Market's Today

There are all kinds of liquid markets out there for the investor to invest in.  Every day (it seems) there are new asset offerings in ETFs that allow an investor to invest their capital in any way they feel they can make money. 

Yes, the markets exist in countries, currencies, gold, silver, agricultural commodities, stocks  "And no-ones getting fat except Mamma Cass". 

Markets Are Confused - all of them...

Wednesday was a very confusing day, and possibly it was driven by Dr. Yellen's lip flapping.  However, there are no loose lips for Dr. Yellen, and she dropped no untimely bombs.

What she has done since taking over is to take away all transparency without ever saying directly she was doing that.  We are back to Greenspan without the witty sayings. 

Here is my take on yesterday:

·         Putin was sending out waves with (reported anyway) overtures to de-escalate the tension in the Ukraine.  The effect on the market was? US Treasuries were not sold, and risk-off was still holding sway. 

·         Gold went down big time.  Almost every currency (except Chinese Renminbi) made major gains against the dollar. 

·         Fed Chairman Yellen told the Joint Economic Committee that she expects somewhat faster growth.  Gold should have went up on that news, as that should have been inflationary, but instead it made a very large drop yesterday.  The gold bugs (who seem to come out of the woodwork like termites when gold goes above $1300) went into hiding again (or yowling manipulation). 

·         The DOW closed very well yesterday and so did most of the large-cap stocks.  Yet the Nasdaq was down, and small-cap stocks underperformed. 

·         S&P 500 found support at its 50 day moving average.  The Russell 2000 (small cap) could not penetrate or close above the 200 day moving average? 

o   Hmmm.  Does this not seem like a major league divergence is happening? 

o   The S&P 500 gained .6%, but the largest gainer was stocks that are normally defensive; the utilities sector. 

The cross-currents seem to be the normal mode for the first 5 months of 2014.  It is very difficult to understand what is going on.  Simply the markets (not just the stock market) are being driving crazy.