Thursday, July 31, 2014

Thursday, July 31, 2014 - Down! But Remember this is a BULL MARKET

Small Business

I will edit the blog later to discuss how our SMB and other SMBs are migrating to hiring only part-time.  And it is not only because of ObamaCare.

Summary: 

·         Yesterday -  Well the market was weird yesterday before the release of the FOMC minutes.  As in the plan, the market opened up, but did not stay there.  Across the USA equity market the price dropped.  Then it rose.  I suspect that was a tough day for most retail day-traders of ETF indexes or the futures market.  Then the FOMC minutes.  The market took off to the upside, and then collapsed.  I suspect (but cannot prove) that retail traders did not fair well. 
·         Plan for today: 
o   The market will open down, and stay down.  I find it confusing to find the good news (finally) and have the market drop so strongly.
o   Exxon beat estimates, and most of the earnings reported in the earning season have been good. 
o   Positive news came in on employment as initial claims saw a 32K rise exceeding (positively) expectations by a wide margin (in the context of things).  This is the lowest number of initial claims in 8 years.  What may be more problematic is the Employment Cost Index jumped .7% - the largest rise since September 2008. 
o   Banco Espirit Santo is causing equity price problems in Europe which helps to explain why the market is down in Europe (falling over to the opening in NY).  FUD is everywhere about Banco as Goldman Sachs licks it wounds over investing last week.
o   Nothing new from the Federal Reserve in my opinion.  They will continue tapering and read the tea-leaves (of course I mean the data).  The labor reports are going to put pressure on the Federal Reserve as labor rises, so does the threat of runaway inflation.

o   Today: Open down, and look for price to try to close the gap after NY opens.  The market could go either way, but the scenario that makes the most sense is for long-term investors to wait to buy or sell as the market digests the FOMC policy and the European Central Bank actions (along with the building crises in France).  

No comments:

Post a Comment