Friday, July 11, 2014

Small Business Outlook

Summary: 

·         ·         As stated, the market opened down, albeit everyone who trades knew that.  The move up during the day was unexpected. 

·         The way the USA stock market works once NY is open, is curiouser and curiouser. 

·         The stock market's move yesterday has not violated the long standing uptrend.  Price bounced off the 20 MVA and did not tested it after flirting with going below.  So far, the S&P 500 is still making higher highs and higher lows. All the bad news?  Don't worry, the bulls are still in control.

·         The S&P would have to close much lower for a short term momentum shift into bear control.  Any close below 1947-1946 would indicate short term the bears are taking control.

·         Overnight, Europe has settled down some.  Is there considerable trouble to be dealt with?  Yes, absolutely Europe has problems that the European Central Bank cannot deal with.

·         Look for the market to open flat, make a brief move toward yesterday's close, and then up slightly, then down. Actually, expect choppy, looking for the 1st 30 minutes of trading in NY to provide a clue if the market will move either direction convincingly.  I don't expect the market will move, but watch the 1st 30 minumes. I would expect volume and price range to be light.  VIX will head down and chop I suggest.