Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Good Morning America, How Are You?

Yesterday was great.  Yes it rained off and on, and I got soaked planting marigolds.  

I planted tomatoes in the morning (got rained on).  I planted lobelia in the early afternoon (got rained on).  Planted alyssum in and around the lobelia (got rained on).  Late afternoon, I planted marigolds (got deluged on).  That did it. I was wet, cold and mosquito bitten, so I went in and took a long hot shower.

It is the little things that make life pleasurable.  Late in the evening around 9:00 PM PDT, it was still light, and the sky had cleared.  I went out and sprayed deer repellent.  I don't know if it will have any effect on the deer, but it stunk bad enough to repel me. 

I had a buck (Mule Deer) that took a dislike to me yesterday.  He is rounding up and protecting his harem, and he thinks my yard belongs to him.  I fixed him.  I was cleaning up the frost cloth that I use over my boxes.  He was staring me down, with his head lowered.  I looked at him.  He looked at me.  I moved toward him.  He did not back up.  I ran at him with my white frost cloth flapping in the wind.  That spooked him, and he ran off about six feet.  We repeated this behavior until he (along with 2 does) gave up, and swam the river.  There take that you, you, so and so... :)    

He was cavorting with the ladies the other night, and knocked down my rocks that I have a decorative boarder around my GrowCamp.   I fixed that in the rain yesterday.  Grrr... 

Have a great day.  Enjoy your food, wine and your family.   

Small Business Outlook

Summary: 

1.   Today is FOMC news.  The FOMC announcement is all that matters.  All liquid markets will be on hold (low volume and small moves) until 11:00 AM PDT (2:00 PM EDT).  The exceptions come when a leak occurs.  Of course, there could be a world emergency, but that would be outside the normal events of Fed Watching.

2.   Today there is really big news that will not affect the stock market.  Tomorrow morning (before you and I awake in the USA), the Chinese renmibi/yuan will be exchanged directly with the British pound in Shanghai.  The pound becomes the 5th major currency in that the world to allow trade directly with the renminbi/yuan without using the US $$$. 

a.    Takeaway?  This is huge, and the Chinese are serious about removing the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world.

3.   CPI was released yesterday... Oh hum, the markets said. I can't help but wonder if pretty much every investor and trader is ignoring the report as the numbers are ridiculous most of the time.  Yesterday, inflation spurted up unexpectedly.  Was that good news?  or was that bad news?  If the numbers are accurate, then the Federal Reserve committee is smiling an pumping their fists as inflation (according to reports) is reaching 2%. 

a.    You may want to take in the price for meat, poultry, fish and eggs.  The BLS started tracking this in 1967.  In 1967 the index was at 38.1.  As of May 2013 it was 234.572, and as of May 2014 it stands at 252.832. 

b.    Basically, inflation for the normal consumer is very high, while inflation the government wants to report is much lower. 

4.   US printed some pretty awful housing data (depending on your spin of the numbers).  Housing starts were down -6.5% in May.  Building permits were down -6.4%.  This was against the bad weather months.  Was there bad weather across the US in May?  I cannot help but think that Housing is about to imploded - dive off the cliff - let the air out of the tires.  That is not good news. 

5.   As far as I'm concerned, the economic news is too confused to drive the market until the FOMC meeting.  I expect the market to open above yesterday's close, and then chop.  Day traders might wait until 11:00 AM PDT, and then get in on the excitement whatever way the excitement drives the market.