Monday, June 16, 2014

Good Morning America, How Are You?

The weekend was a rainy day Saturday (and Sunday).  A time to relax and reflect.  I wrote a piece on happiness and trading.  While no one will ever read it, my reflections on trading indicate my path to learning about economics and investing (not trading) in excellent companies.

I planted marigolds yesterday in the rain.  I love marigolds.  They are my favorite of all flowers.  Rarely does anything bother them, and they are bright and cheery.  The deer do not bother them.  The beetles do not bother them, and while I have a slug problem once in a while, I give them a shot of beer. 

Did you ever think about your biggest problem you face?  I know my biggest is to have a sunny personality; which means I need to work on happiness.  I need to work on that every single day, and while for some happiness comes naturally; not me.  Happiness does not come easily.  I have no friends (I know of) that I could call and talk about the challenges today.  The only friend that has remained my friend is my wife.  To me, after 40+ years of marriage, my wife is my best (and only) friend.

Then I reflected on listening.  People want to tell their stories, but I would rather tell my own story, rather than listening.  Therefore, for the next 30 days, I'm going to reflect on listening every morning.  I'm going to practice listening (whatever that means, since I rarely talk to anyone any longer). 

 

Have a great day.  Enjoy your food, wine and your family. 

Small Business Outlook

As the summer continues, I talk to other small business owners we are doing business with.  Our local nursery is having trouble moving her products.  Our only small grocery store is only hanging on by a thread.  The lady's husband passed away 3 years ago, and she took over the business.  She leans to providing credit to those who have proven they won't pay her back, and her store runs down - nearly to zero now.  Sad...  Because that business cannot be sold as it sits on the edge of the Kettle River, and any new owner would have to move the building.  On the other hand, the company providing rock and cement are doing very well indeed, as more retirees are moving here and building homes. 

Business in Republic are surviving in that all the businesses I do business with are still there, and they have been there for many years. 

Unscientifically, I measure the US economy by the vacancy rate along Division Street in Spokane.  When vacancies are increasing (in my non-scientific observation), I know the USA's economy is not doing well.  When business are filling all those strip mall openings, I know the USA economy is growing.  At the moment, Division Street is stable. 

Very few of us in the Okanagon, Ferry County or Stevens County appear ready to increase employment for the summer.  Most of this is still due to uncertainty.

Many people blame Obama, and he certainly deserves his share.  However, my problems are not Obama directly.  The problems reside in the bureaucracy that was there before Obama, has grown substantially since Obama took power, and will continue after he is gone.  The rules are regulations for everything are onerous.  Not only that the bureaucrats are in conflict just in the Federal Government's hoard of organizations; not forgetting the conflict with the state and Fed at the regulations that affect us as a small business. 

I'm noticing any gains in optimism by small business is based in hope of good sales this summer.  With prices being raised more frequently by suppliers with rising labor rates, small business like us are unwilling to invest in an uncertain future. 

I am very skeptical of Mr. Obama's speeches on helping small business.  I want to believe he is sincere.  However, he cannot overcome the plethora of bureaucrats that plague our existence every day. Democrats are not about small business. They are about very large business and labor Unions that plague and stymie growth.

Small business will not pull its weight in the economy.  

Summary: 

Friday the 13th in the stock market was up-down-all around.  The S&P closed just a little bit over the 12th close, but S&P futures closed just a little under the 12th close.  The market stared down at the NY opening.  Then it turned around and penetrated the opening slightly.  Then it turned down.  Then it chopped the rest of the day (in the futures market). 

Oil took a breather, as Iraq's problems escalate.  Mr. Obama seems to be dithering and jawboning again on a very difficult Foreign Affairs problem.  Canada, Norway, Russia and Brazil should be gaining on the US dollar with the rise in Oil prices, but it seems they cannot with the trouble in Iraq.  I would surmise that Iraq is going to get uglier, as this President is not likely to do anything.  Shoot Rudy, it seems we are the ones that armed and trained these rebels in Iraq, and we armed and trained them in Syria because we did not like Assad.  May your sins find you out.  Ultimately the countries who produce oil will benefit from the rise in price of Oil. 

The Feds will meet this week.  I expect (along with 99% of everyone else) they will announce the tapering will continue.   Janet Yellen will say nothing at all, and obfuscate everything.  She will certainly be concerned about all the bad economic data that has been released recently.  However, expect nothing because she is not open like Bernanke. 

There will be lots of economic data this week in the US.  Look out for large range choppiness in the market as the I expect the news to be good, bad and mixed.