Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 Hitchhiker's VUE

General Information and Analysis

There was very little market moving data for currencies in the world yesterday.  

I'm tired for no particular reason, and I won't go into China today.  Right now, though, the markets and every investor I know is turned toward China.  


US

Yesterday in the Stock Market

In one word, slow until profit taking took place in the last 90 minutes of trading.

The S&P 500 penetrated the 1800 level at the opening, but it did not hold.  The market traded in a tight range until the final 90 minutes.  At that point a wave of profit taking took place. 


Reuters this morning attributed the fall to Carl Ican's comments that he is very cautious about equities.  Of course, you should be very cautious; even more so than Mr. Ican.  


As one observes the stock market from afar (online), one becomes aware that volume is important - albeit, after reading about all the volume indicators, I don't find the interpretation accurate enough than to be a filter for trades.  Volume, yesterday was 5% below its 50 day range.



Even with the close down, the S&P 500 is up 25.62% for 2013, and just below the all time closing high in the S&P 500.

For now, even perma-bears are having to admit that the USA stock market is in a "bull" phase.  However, the bulls have to admit that this stock market has never "felt" right to the up side, as the Economic fundamentals do not support this kind of rise.  This observation of "not right" has truth whether one is evaluating GDP of the USA, Europe or China. It also has truth when measuring employment.  It also has truth if companies were measured on revenue and not just EPS (Earnings Per Share). 

Retail Sales are going to be a very important indicator this holiday season to determine how robust the recovery seems to the middle class and poor in the USA and Europe.

I will look at currencies next, but I have some class work to do.  Therefore, I won't be giving a NY opening evaluation on currencies.  

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