General Information and Analysis
I ran out of energy yesterday
after taking classes mid-morning. I did
not cover investment areas to try, and I believe I will go back on my promise
about that.
I talked to Dr. Shiller yesterday
about the part I wrote about Japan. He
pointed out that the USA is not Japan, and that it is nowhere near as in debt
as Japan. I pointed out, that while it
is true the USA has some advantages, there are similarities to the two country’s
attempts at competing globally. What is
different, in my opinion, is the USA’s focus on Socialism since the Obama
Administration took over. Another
difference is aging demographics. There are
similarities in that both countries have an aging (aged) population. There are differences in that USA for
whatever reason is encouraging illegal immigration, and then turning them
legal, keeping the low paying wage earners young. Of course, the USA is paying
the price of that in unemployment of the legal US citizen that is young.
Tomorrow I will publish the last
essay in Zeb’s Blog. It is not popular,
and those that wanted me to start it up again, have not visited with any
regularity.
I have no understanding how to
market a blog. At one time, I published
a blog that European’s flocked to. I was working in Europe (part time London,
part time Stuttgart) building computer algorithms for bond trading. I would
follow my life and pressures in that world.
That seemed to be interesting for many readers, but it was not
interesting (apparently) to US readers.
I then started up Zeb’s blog last
year. Last year I focused on morning
news with some focus on currencies. I
had absolutely zero followers, nor did it ever grow.
When I started this up again, I shared
with you my view of the major countries I follow through their currencies. It is a lot of work, and there is no reward
(monetary or otherwise).
So it is over, and I will soon
remove it completely.
China
HSBC manufacturing report for
China saw a decline in manufacturing for the first time in 4 months; from 50.9
to 50.4. China has two reports: HSBC and
the Chinese Government report. You can find
lots of analysis (and facts) on Bloomberg.
In China, there is no way that I
know of to find accurate information on any government reporting. HSBC is considered to be non-bias, but the
reader would best be served, I think, by taking the HSBC and the Chinese report
and averaging the reports.
With China, one can never tell
with confidence what numbers are accurate and what fake data they have used to
distort comparisons. We have some
insight that the Manufacturing Report from HSBC is in conflict with China’s
non-manufacturing purchase manager’s index.
However, the non-manufacturing PMI will be influenced in November by
direct intervention by the government to slow growth in infrastructure
building. (Of course, as I pointed out
previously, the Chinese business people are not slowing building down, and
that presents a conundrum. A conundrum
that could be taken care of by free-market as stated by the new reforms from
the Communist Party Plenum.
Overall, it would appear the
Chinese economy is increasing momentum.
These signs are very likely to increase confidence in the Communist
Party (not the military) in tackling reforms.
Growth momentum should continue,
with the government shifting to verbal statements to tone down pro-growth
rhetoric. However, do not look for
significant tightening of monetary policy as the new leaders (XI and Li) need a
stable growing economy to consolidate their power base.
Folks, the demise of the Chinese
growth machine has been grossly exaggerated.
It is growing, and while China has many many challenges ahead (as
everyone does), at this point in history (right now), they have managed their
economy way better than every other country since the start of the
century. The absolute worse management
has been the USA, but that horrible (my opinion) management started with Bush Administration; not the Obama
Administration.
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