Today is a risk-off day as all the currency (money) flow is into the $$$.
EUR -- As I look at CME report for today, EUR (6E) is down considerably. However, Please applaud the European Central Bank for making it perfectly clear that they will not participate in the "active exchange rate policies" that almost every other country (USA included) has turned to. "Active et al" is the so-called Currency Wars.
KIWI -- New Zealand on the other hand went into Lip-Flapping when Wheeler said: "When the NZ dollar is coming under upward pressure, we want investors to know that the kiwi is not a one-way bet". In other words, he is dissing the Kiwi. After his comments, the Kiwi tanked. Here is the scoop. As you know NZ is a export nation. The Kiwi has booked at least a 1.7-2.0% gain against the $$$ this year. Wheeler would rather that not be the case, and is willing to interceded to match the YEN's demise at least.
A$ -- The Aussie's are following along with the Kiwi. More research is needed (by me anyway) to understand what is happening here. China's numbers should make the A$ strong, but it is looking pretty weak, and could get taken to the cleaners.
G20 Policy: BLAAAHHH... The G20 is could not tell the difference between currency wars and cheapening of the currency to stimulate the economy.
YEN -- Well, today not so much discourse on the YEN as Japan's Trade Balance. As the older readers will recall, Japan's trade balance has nearly always been very strong -- nearly always a surplus. In 2012 it is showing deficits, and the January trade balance was a record 1.7 billion dollars (1.63 trillion YEN). Japan is between the proverbial rock and the hard space. On one hand the weaker YEN will help exports. On the other hand, it will make imports more expensive. Remember the earthquake? Well it took out the nuclear plants, remember? That means that Japan has to import way more fossil fuel to manufacture exports, and with the YEN so weak it is expensive. (Read my note on Brent Oil and gasoline -- these things are related in the global economy and especially for Japan as it has to import every single bit of Oil. Then relate this also -- The South China Seas conflict. Why? Because there is a huge Oil field sitting under the Ocean there, and China wants all of it. On the other hand Japan and the Philippines have historical claims to those uninhabited islands. No one cared about all that until the Oil field under the South China Seas was discovered. -- See what you can learn from Zeb's blog?)
Pound Sterling -- The pound is in trouble. Outgoing Central bank government has garnered votes to pass for more Quantitative Easing. The currency traders said hey -- great -- let us sell sell sell... This is a war on currency -- not so much currency wars. It could (but maybe not) also become a war on bonds and debt. I hope not, as I love to visit England and I have many British friends. We need a map, gentle reader.
- Lord Melchett: “Farewell, Blackadder [hands him a parchment]. The foremost cartographers of the land have prepared this for you; it's a map of the area that you'll be traversing. [Blackadder opens it up and sees it is blank] They'll be very grateful if you could just fill it in as you go along. Bye-bye.”– From the English comedy series Blackadder (Part 2, Episode 3)
Brazilian Real -- The emerging markets are strong. (These are known as the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Brazil's central bank very much wants to drive the currency price down. Will it be able to do so? Probably not, but they may be able to manage slower appreciation.
I often make a comment on stocks to watch. Since I'm not an investment adviser, I'm not making stock recommendations. However, I hate hot tips from investment advisers, talking heads and friends at the bar. So, I will talk about safe, long term world class companies.
Since I'm an ex-computer nerd, I think about technology companies. Some like Cisco, I did work with directly particularly in OSPF algorithms (years ago).
CISCO -- Recently reported sales were up 5% over the same quarter last year. Earnings were up 6.2%. What I want in a stock is consistency in profit margins, cash flow is beyond good, and the Balance Sheet is a moat against tough times. CISCO -- margins are consistent year-to-year (exception right after the Internet bubble, but this just supports the fact that they have a balance sheet to weather storms). Cashflow -- up 8% for six months -- about $5.3 billion vs same period last fiscal year Balance Sheet $43B in cash and investments and $16.6 billion in debt. It could pay off its debt twice over and still have billions of dollars in cash.
I have a newsletter (for friends only) that I would suggest CISCO will go into our portfolio as a dividend producer and a good producer of income.
Here is something for you Windows 8 users. Does it annoy you that you cannot restart your computer from the desktop? Does it annoy you that it boots into that horrible windows thingee instead of the desktop? Where is my Windows 7 desktop I want to know?
Well, I built two buttons to go on my desktop in order to reboot (or turnoff) my machine and display the desktop without going into that horrible windows thingee (oh gentle readers if you like that horrible windows thingee that comes up, please accept my condolences. What do they call those things now? Oh yea, charms. Good Grief, and to think I worked for MS once. What do you think I am a believer in Leprechauns?
Here is a link that will tell you how to do this. I wrote my buttons in C#, but you can write a batch script that does this without any programming. http://www.techrepublic.com/photos/shutdown-windows-8-right-from-the-desktop/6396886?tag=nl.e064&s_cid=e064
Until tomorrow -- have a great day. (And remember to give your teenagers a hug and tell them you are on their side - no matter what. Hug them even if they don't want it. Hugs are good...)
No comments:
Post a Comment