Thursday, February 28, 2013

Thursday 2/28/2013 Yikes!!!!

It is a good thing no one reads this blog.  I might have to defend my right to spout my angry reactions to insider trading that is NOT against the law and is totally condoned by the Presidents of the USA.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.”

-Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

Ah, a most famous book that even I had to read (which high-school students rarely are required to read any longer).  One of my favorite movies is The Muppets "A Christmas Carol", a Muppet recreation of Scrooge.  Dickens was brilliant, and my High School English teacher (if she were alive) would smile to hear me say that.

The story is a tale of the years leading up to the French Revolution and ended in the Jacobin Reign of Terror.   Today, there is no nation that stands alone, and perhaps it is neither the best of times nor the worst of times -- just in rhythm with the past (or maybe it is the oddest of times). "Oddest"? Why?

  1. Italy is in disarray -- markets don't care (and USA citizens really don't care)
  2. Company earnings (with only a few notable exceptions) have fallen far short of expectation -- Don't care...
  3. Automatic Cuts in Government spending will happen ..  Don't Care... Yawn!!!
  4. Bennie and the Ink Jets are printing money and handing out free gifts to anybody too-big-too-fail -- Don't care...
  5. Medical Costs are skyrocketing as insurance companies who backed Obamacare are driving prices higher, and refusing to pay for anything they can get away with not paying. (I'm not the only fairly wealthy write talking about this. Read John Maudlin's outside the box, and he will point you to the problem even the rich -- he is wealthy - are facing.  Welcome to central planning... )  DON"T CARE...
  6. Spain can't recover from austerity measures, and the PM's approval rating is 20% - sure to drive another election soon DON'T CARE...
  7. Political governance has become irrelevant.. DON'T CARE...
  8. Argentina is about to default -- DON'T CARE... And the US Judge in California really does not care and she says it is not her responsibility to care about Argentina's economy -- Don't care TWICE
  9. Nothing Matter's -- Who Cares... Let's party (or as in Oliver "More gruel if you please".  Mrs. Worth if you are listening from above, I did learn from you and came to appreciate what you taught in English Literature.)  
What is the oddest thing  in the USA in my view, is that starting with President Nixon, the USA president's have all adopted Keynesian economics, but only the spend side.  Under 1/2 Keynesian,  money no longer has any fundamentals -- even the paper it is printed on is obsolete - it is not printed on paper any longer.  It is made from nothing at all, a digital creation of man's imagination.  It is something far stranger than the answer to the "Life, the Universe, and Everything" (42 - according to Deep Thought).  It is a financial nothingness (certainly not a system in the normal sense) cobbled together in Dicken's like Scrooge's counting houses; money made from nothing at all.  (At least Scrooge was counting his pennies, but he could not possible count pennies if he had Warren Buffet's wealth.)  Yesterday Bernanke promised QEternity and Draghi (European Central Bank) promised feeding without end.

The stock-market reaction?  Let's party, the banks are saved.

Let's continue on with the theme of "DON'T CARE"...

  • Negative Q4 GDP Revised to Barely Positive...  This was the smallest possible revision to make it seem the US economy grew in the 4th quarter.  One thing is abundantly clear, the GDP trendline is ugly  -- DON'T CARE
  • Jack Lew is one of the most dangerous men ever elected to be Secretary of Treasury...  In his Harvard papers, he gives every indication of being a communist - Senate does not CARE, People do not Care, and Republicans must agree pretty much with his viewpoint.   DON'T CARE  http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-28/jack-lew-social-security-dump-it
  • JCPenney and Sears post huge losses, and Wal Mart is warning... DON'T CARE.  (unless you are invested in JCPenney or Sears... by the way these are not Value Plays -- read the book I recommended yesterday...)  
  • Japan - China -- rhetoric is heating up over Islands in the South China Seas.  North Korea is making very challenging statements and threats against South Korea, Japan and the USA... DON'T CARE...
  • BIG BROTHER -- creating Stupendous, Tremendous growing business in Insurance  DON"T CARE...
    • Should you be worried about this?  If you have applied for Life Insurance or Obamacare health Insurance, you should ask what the underwriters know about you.  Are you even a little bit surprised at how much they know about the products and services you used or are likely want to use in the future?  DON'T CARE...  Yep... I can predict I'm on Home Land's Security SH*** list (watch list) just from the little bit I write on this blog.
    • The biggest benefactor (and maybe not to your benefit) is mandated electronic recordkeeping in the Health Care sector.  Did you know the only people who can't mine your data (or even get it) is your family.  Every single health care insurer, government organization and health care consortium will have access to that data, which not only includes your health information, but also your credit information, purchasing, and so-on.  
    • This is big business at its finest as it is this "Big Business" that help lobby Congress and the White House to pass Obamacare, and require the federally mandated electronic record keeping (all for politically correct reasons of course).  
Enough, as you get the idea that the real reason the stock market is making new highs is the Central Banks want the stock market to go up - period end-of story.  And for you small businesses, it is all rhetoric they want you to survive.  There is nothing about the Federal Government (and the Labor Unions) that want small business to survive.  As far as I can determine, when Congress Person Cathy McMorris talks small business, she is discussing business that make $10M-50M per year -- not the small business such as the one-owner restaurants, the small cattle farmer in Eastern Washington, the organic truck farm in Spokane.  She thinks Kinross Mining is small business; not the hardware business that employees five people in one of her small towns.

Any good news?  Yes, if you are a banker.  Generally, for years (since Mr. Obama took over the reigns of leadership) the USA and the rest of the world have teetered on the brink of disaster.  Please give the Federal Reserve credit in that I believe they have kept the economy from crashing into a deflationary pit.  Then having stated that, We the People of the USA face a debt crises somewhere in the future - a potential crises the likes of which world economy has never faced.  The numbers are unfathomable.  No matter the icon one tries to put up to explain $1Trillion, how does one's mind encompass 16Trillion dollars or more worrisome $220 Trillion in unfunded liabilities?  Do you even have a calculator that will accept a $1T dollars as input?

Good News: (I hope and pray)

  1. Housing looks strong, and it appears that the Federal Reserve's buying of mortgage backed securities is working.  Pending home sales rose a stupendous 10.4% compared to a year ago. (I'm looking for good news, here; not trying to educate you on who really bought those homes (like hedge funds)). 
  2. Durable goods orders (exception Transportation) jumped in January -- the most in a year rising 1.9%.
  3. Chicago PMI  reading surprised to the upside.  Economist were not expecting that kind of increase.
WARNING:

If you have listened to the President of the United States over the last two weeks, he has been preaching economic Armageddon if the sequester takes place tomorrow.  Why are not the markets all worried about this?  DON"T CARE... Bennie and the Ink Jets are here to take care of us.

Will there be an economic Armageddon?  How in the world could such small cuts cause such a catastrophe the President is predicting?  Is he able to observe a tipping point that we cannot observe?  

Stay tuned (not to me obviously), but we've never had a President that went stumping down the road warning of a catastrophe without providing any solution to the catastrophe, or even explaining how a less than 1% cut in the budget spending will cause a catastrophe.  Rhetoric is cheap, and can raise all kinds of emotions. 

  Wow... Wow... Wow...    

`Speak roughly to your little boy,
          And beat him when he sneezes:
        He only does it to annoy,
          Because he knows it teases.'

`Wow! wow! wow!'

 `I speak severely to my boy,
          I beat him when he sneezes;
        For he can thoroughly enjoy
          The pepper when he pleases!'
                    CHORUS.
                `Wow! wow! wow!'

Alice In Wonderland...

You know of course, the baby turned into a Pig, but as Alice said it was an ugly baby but a handsome pig.



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