Opening VUE:
- Thursday had a large number of economic news reports. The economic leading indicators were disappointing, and investors are beginning to question if the global economy led by the USA is not headed into another recession. Initial job claims increased as well.
- The price swings in the USA stock market are large (and violent). This is the kind of market day-traders thrive in.
- Google and Microsoft released positive earnings late afternoon yesterday. IBM, however, on a disappointing earnings report.
- The focus today will be on the G-20 meeting.
- June 2 year T-notes are down just before the opening. This usually suggests that traders (as opposed to investors) are looking to trade in risk assets today.
- European stock indexes have rallied over night.
- Conclusion -- mixed opening... Direction will likely be determined after the first 1/2 of trading in New York.
6:45 AM PDT
It may not be evident to most readers that the stock market can be indecisive during the opening in NY. After all, last night the Asian stockmarkets and the European stock markets were way up.
This morning INDU (DOW) headed down, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq head up. That is what I would call a mixed open.
The downward pressure on the DOW will likely cause downward pressure on the other markets. I look to the first 1/2 hour to set the opening range. The breakout of that range to the upside will likely indicate the market will continue higher for the day. A breakout to the downside will be find support at yesterday's close on S&P and Nasdaq. The DOW is already negative.
Have a look at Crude Oil. Crude is up while the dollar is down. The weaker dollar is putting a lot of upward pressure on Crude. Crude Oil is one of the most volatile assets in the global marketplace. Look for Crude to continue to climb, and in turn the US $ to fall.
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